6/11/2014

The Microvision Tide Just Turned... Even If It's Not Obvious (MVIS)

If the cash you have available is money you absolutely need to invest safely and wisely because you need it (and its appreciation) to love on in retirement, then let me stop you right now - the rest of what you're about to read probably isn't for you. On the other hand, if you and your qualified financial adviser agree you've got some money you can gamble with [i.e. if you lose it all, it won't matter], then may I direct your attention to Microvision, Inc. (NASDAQ:MVIS)? Long story made short, MVIS has dropped hints of a brewing rebound.

For those even modestly plugged into MVSL, you may be wondering what in the world I'm talking about. There's been little news from, or even about, Microvision of late, and the stock seems content to simply let itself sink deeper into the quicksand. In fact, MVIS managed to hit a new multi-year low yesterday.

Yes, I get all that, and I can't argue that there's a distinct lack of news regarding Microvision, Inc. right now. I'm telling you though, a couple of clues are subtly, quietly pointing in favor of the stock here.

One of them is the fact that MVIS has suddenly become one of the hot - well, one of the fairly warm - names within the message board community. While these tend to be amateur traders (and often pump and dump instigators, or those who fall prey to P&Ds), that doesn't mean the surge in interest isn't telling of something on the horizon - why the sudden interest when there was none before.

The biggest reason Microvision could be a good speculative buy here, however, is the chart.

Yes, MVIS hit new lows on Monday, and the theory is "buy new lows" (since they tend to keep coming). I'm telling you though, in my experience, I've seen it just as often that would-be owners are just waiting for a revisit to prior lows to use as an entry point... the "can't get any worse" theory.

Indeed, on the same day we hit new 52-week lows, Microvision, Inc. also - interestingly - popped back up to close at the high for the day. It was also a butterfly doji day, which suggests Monday was the day we flushed out all of the would-be sellers, and the environment turned to one of net bullishness. The volume spike for Monday (high volume, even of not huge volume) implies underscores how the session may have been a last gasp for the bears and a subsequent "ok, that's low enough" pivot for the bulls. See, high volume doji bars tend to mark turning points for stocks.

Yes, it's admittedly all a little fuzzy, which is why MVIS is most definitely a speculation here; today's lack of follow-through isn't exactly reassuring. It could take some time to get in a bullish groove after Monday's clues though. The clincher for the call is fairly simple... the first close above the 20-day moving average line (blue), which has been a nagging resistance level for weeks. It's at least worth adding to your watchlist in the meantime.

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