Hedge your bets. If the International Monetary Fund gave investment advice, that might be its three-word recommendation.
Late last month the IMF predicted the Eurozone's contracting economy would grow at an anemic 1.5% next year. Meanwhile, it revised the U.S.'s growth downward by 1.1% percentage points to 1.7% for 2014, but said it would rise to 3% in 2015. Our own take: We're cautions about the U.S. recovery given retail sales stalled in July and wage growth has failed to surpass the inflation rate.
The Chinese economic engine, the world’s No. 2 economy, will expand 7.4% this year, according to the IMF. That's good news for the globe, but we're less optimistic than the IMF about China. Data from China shows financial activity slowed down in July: New lending declined 86% in July from June, the slowest rate of credit expansion since Lehman Brother's crashed in 2008, according to economists interviewed by the New York Times.
And July new home sales in China fell 17.9% from a year earlier and 28.2% from June. China's second quarter uptick is likely an "aberration" and the Chinese government's stimulus isn't enough to offset skittish banks from pulling back lending to "bigger, riskier borrowers," the Times reported. And if China should fail in its stimulus efforts that could mean an unexpected drag on global growth.
The only bright spot continues to be emerging markets. The IMF projects that annual growth will be 5% per year over the next five years. That's strong, but down from an average of 7% growth from 2003 to 2008. Of course it's tough to pick which developing region or country will be the next to take off economically.
Overall, the IMF expects the global economy will like! ly expand 3.4% this year, a cut of 0.3% percentage points from April’s estimate, but still an improvement from 3.2% in 2013. The lack of strong growth in developed countries, despite very low interest rates and other stimulus might mean "global growth could be weaker for longer," the IMF said in its report.
Investors can be forgiven for being weary of the uneven pace of the global recovery, and the volatile markets that go with them. The world's economic leaders seem like they're in the business of revising their forecasts downward, and coming up with new reasons why a recovery is always just around the corner.
We had just such uncertain situations in mind when we developed portfolios for Global Income Edge. We hedge your bets for you by recommending companies with operations mainly based in stable developed countries, and with operations across a broad range of developing nations.
In this, our first Income Without Borders, we look at two health care companies that span dozens of countries and have pricing power and demographic winds at their backs to continue to pay high dividends.
Richard Stavros is Chief Investment Strategist of Global Income Edge
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