After yesterday’s announcement that Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) would look to exit its Bloom Lake project, Deutsche Bank’s Jorge Beristain and team slashed their rating on the struggling iron miner to Hold from Buy. They explain why:
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Stripping out [Eastern Canada iron ore] operations from 1Q15 onwards, lowers Deustche Bank’s estimated EBITDA by an average of 5% over the next 3 years to ~$650m/yr, while reduced depreciation & amortization increases EPS. Incorporating estimated related closure costs of $700m (assuming $150m/yr in first three years and $125m/yr in following two) and
$71m legal loss in 1Q15, [net-present value, or] NPV declines $4/sh to $12/sh. However, we note some potential NPV offsets (not yet considered) include reduced maintenance capex and SG&A costs reduce could provide ~$1/sh tailwind. Should Cliffs be in a position to forego remaining $750m tailings dam capex, NPV could increase a further ~$3/sh…
Cliffs' price target of $10 [down from $17. Ed.] is now based on 0.85x (from prior ~1.0x) our revised NPV of ~$12 ($16), calculated under a discounted cash-flow methodology. Increased net-debt-to-EBITDA is becoming a source concern and reason for applying 15% discount to NPV. Risks include higher-/lower-than-expected iron ore and coal prices, possibility of breaching covenants (on reduced cash flow generation) and increase/decrease of foreign exchange rates, particularly for the Australian Dollar.
Investors don’t appear too worried today, however. Cliffs shares have gained 6.3% to $8.69 at 1:35 p.m. today, even as BHP Billiton (BHP) has fallen 1.5% to $55 and Rio Tinto (RIO) has dropped 2.4% to $45.07.
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