5/19/2015

Jim Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Major Moves on Lesser News

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The markets are seeing a lot of major moves on very little news, Jim Cramer said on "Mad Money" Tuesday.

Cramer said there's a revaluation of stocks underway, the likes of which we haven't seen in a very long time. He said that certain old-line names are seeing new life and new highs.

Among the big movers: Best Buy (BBY), Boeing (BA) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). Cramer said Best Buy's comeback from $26 a share to now $42 has been remarkable while Boeing is up 71% for the year, even in the face of early problems with its Dreamliners. Bristol-Myers has popped from $48 to $53 a share in just a few days. Others on Cramer's list include Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Core Labs (CLB) and FedEx (FDX), along with GameStop (GME) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). Cramer said Chipotle's momentum has returned, while Core Labs has also sprung back to life, as has FedEx, a big beneficiary of the global economy. Meanwhile, GameStop is benefiting from the next generation of console gaming and Kimberly-Clark is seeing lower input costs. Last on Cramer's list of standouts is Schlumberger (SLB), whose shares are up from $71 to $94 a share, and Whirlpool (WHR), which has seen a move from $112 to $148 even with a slowdown in housing. Cramer said all of these are good companies that have gotten even better in recent months. The market is clearly listening. Back From the Dead What ever happened to Cramer's "F.A.D.S. C.A.N." list of growth stocks from 2010? Cramer said the list -- which included F5 Networks (FFIV), Apple (AAPL), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Salesforce.com (CRM), along with Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Amazon.com (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX) -- is back from the dead, just in time for Halloween. Chipotle was an unstoppable momentum name until it faltered during the summer of 2012. Since then the momentum is back and this stock has a lot more runway ahead of it, Cramer said. Apple, a holding in Cramer's charitable portfolio, Action Alerts PLUS, also has been working its way back from when shares fell to below $400. With the company delivering a strong line of updated products, Cramer said it's a steal at 8.5 times earnings.

Netflix is up 225% since Cramer recommended it back in 2010, but not before sinking to $54 a share on a series of bad management mistakes. Since then, the mistakes have been rectified; with a host of new exclusive content, subscriber growth is on a tear.

Then there's Deckers, makers of Uggs footwear. Cramer said after losing the eye of investors for several quarters, Deckers shot the lights out this quarter and is seeing its shares steadily rising.

Cramer saved his commentary on the rest of the F.A.D.S. C.A.N. names for after the break. F.A.D.S. C.A.N., Part 2

Continuing his followup on his F.A.D.S. C.A.N. growth stocks from 2010, Cramer offered up his analysis on F5 Networks, Amazon.com and Salesforce.com. Cramer said Salesforce.com, a stock that's up 155% since 2010, continues to power higher on every pull back. He said the company is stronger than ever with $3 billion in sales. Amazon.com is the only name in the list that's not back from the dead, as this stock never died in the first place. Cramer said Amazon just keeps coming at you like a zombie, crushing competitors while growing its sales and expanding its gross margins in the face of continuing pessimism. Finally, there's F5, the network equipment maker that also keeps making comebacks from anything that's thrown at it. Cramer noted this stock fell from $138 to just $67 a share, but has already crawled back to $84 on the back of a new product cycle. Lightning Round In the Lightning Round, Cramer was bullish on Magnum Hunter Resources (MHR) and Southern Company (SO). Cramer was bearish on Federal-Mogul (FDML), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Cisco Systems (CSCO). Off the Charts In the "Off The Charts" segment, Cramer went head to head with colleague Carolyn Boroden over the direction of the markets. Boroden's most recent analysis suggested that its time to get cautious, as the S&P 500 is approaching two ceilings of resistance where the markets could pause or even reverse course. She identified levels between 1,760 and 1,768 and also between 1,776 and 1781 as the trouble spots to watch for.

Boroden also applies her Fibonacci theory to the timing of the market, looking at the number of days between market moves. Here, her analysis flagged from Oct 28 through Nov 5th as the days when the market is most likely to take its pause.

Boroden and Cramer both agreed that now is an excellent time to take profits, as the market has had a big rally and it's never a mistake to lock in a gain after a big market move. No Huddle Offense

In his "No Huddle Offense" segment, Cramer sounded off on the moronic trading in Apple.

Cramer said the press is always in a race to get the story told, even if they don't yet know what the story is. That's how Apple's stock was able to get hit for $15 a share after the "headlines" reported stalled gross margins. But as soon as investors learned that an accounting change at Apple deferred nearly $1 billion in revenues, the stock immediately took a $21 a share bounce off the bottom. Similar events occurred on another Action Alerts PLUS holding, Eaton (ETN), during its earnings call; investors learned, after the headlines, that orders were on the rise towards the end of the quarter. Cramer said sometimes it makes sense to beat the other guy to the market, but for the most part, jumping in after a company reports, is never a smart move. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. To sign up for Jim Cramer's free Booyah! newsletter with all of his latest articles and videos please click here. -- Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C. To email Scott about this article, click here: Scott Rutt Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottRutt or get updates on Facebook, ScottRuttDC

At the time of publication, Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS had a position in AAPL, CSCO and ETN. Jim Cramer, host of the CNBC television program "Mad Money," is a Markets Commentator for TheStreet.com, Inc., and CNBC, and a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. All opinions expressed by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are his own and do not reflect the opinions of TheStreet.com or its affiliates, or CNBC, NBC Universal or their parent company or affiliates. Mr. Cramer's opinions are based upon information he considers to be reliable, but neither TheStreet.com, nor CNBC, nor either of their affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Cramer's statements are based on his opinions at the time statements are made, and are subject to change without notice. No part of Mr. Cramer's compensation from CNBC or TheStreet.com is related to the specific opinions expressed by him on "Mad Money." None of the information contained in "Mad Money" constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Cramer, TheStreet.com or CNBC that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy mentioned on the program. Mr. Cramer's past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Neither Mr. Cramer, nor TheStreet.com, nor CNBC guarantees any specific outcome or profit, and you should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investments discussed on the program. The strategy or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value and you may get back less than you invested. Before acting on any information contained in the program, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser. Some of the stocks mentioned by Mr. Cramer on "Mad Money" are held in Mr. Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio. When that is the case, appropriate disclosure is made on the program and in the "Mad Money" recap available on TheStreet.com. The Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio contains all of Mr. Cramer's personal investments in publicly-traded equity securities only, and does not include any mutual fund holdings or other institutionally managed assets, private equity investments, or his holdings in TheStreet.com, Inc. Since March 2005, the Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio has been held by a Trust, the realized profits from which have been pledged to charity. Mr. Cramer retains full investment discretion with respect to all securities contained in the Trust. Mr. Cramer is subject to certain trading restrictions, and must hold all securities in the Action Alerts PLUS Portfolio for at least one month, and is not permitted to buy or sell any security he has spoken about on television or on his radio program for five days following the broadcast.

5/18/2015

Whither Japan Stocks: Panasonic, Sony, And Sharp

Last Friday, October 11, was a strong up day for the Tokyo market.  The Nikkei 225 rose 210 yen, or 1.5%, to 14,404, a fourth consecutive up day.

Sony executive vice president and Sony Compute...

Sony executive vice president and Sony Computer Entertainment president Kazuo Hirai bows to apologize for the massive theft of personal data from users of the company's PlayStation Network and Qriocity online services, at a press conference at the Sony headquarters in Tokyo on May 1, 2011. Sony said on May 1 it would 'shortly' begin restoring its PlayStation Network and Qriocity following a major security breach that compromised millions of users. (Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife)

(Today, the 15th, it rose slightly to 14,441.)  Boosting the market has been a reversal of the yen's recent strengthening trend which was mainly an adverse market reaction to the Yellen nomination. The Japanese currency is now around 98.5 yen/dollar, close to its recent lows.

At the present level, the Nikkei 225 is off its YTD high of 15,627 set on May 22, but it is even further above the YTD low of 10,487 set on January 23. Short term moving averages have been rising.  My sense, as posted previously, is that further broad market gains are likely.

Amid Friday's general market cheer and rising prices, we note with interest the substantially different performance of the stocks of Japan's three leading consumer electronics companies, Panasonic (OTC:PCRFY), Sony (NYSE:SNE), and Sharp (OTC:SHCAY). All three are in the throes of massive and painful restructurings, on-going market evaluation of which has been the main factor driving their stock prices. Hint for what comes below:  on Friday in Tokyo, Panasonic was up 2.8%, Sony was up 1.05%, and Sharp lost 2%. Today, the 15th, the movement was Panasonic up 0.63%, Sony us 0.99%, and Sharp dropping a further 2.39%.

Last week Panasonic announced that by March 31, 2014 it would completely end production of plasma television panels and stop all related sales globally. Previously the company had targeted exiting this product business a year later, in FY 2014, which ends March 2105. It had already stopped R&D. Now the company decided it would not drag out the withdrawal and would immediately close (and sell) the one factory in Japan located in Amagasaki City, Hyogo Prefecture, still producing the panels.

According to the October 9 Nihon Keizai Shimbun, in the two fiscal years ended March 31, 2013, Panasonic had lost annually over JPY 750 billion (USD 7.7 billion) in the plasma TV business.   This volume of bleeding had to be stopped.  From the mid-2000s Panasonic invested over JPY 500 billion (USD 5.1 billion) in the Amagasaki factory. By now equipment is fully depreciated and the book value of buildings is only JPY 40 billion (USD 408 million). A write-off of this and other costs of the plasma TV business is not expected to prevent Panasonics main business from returning to profits.

Sony was also in the news on October 11, with its CEO Hirai Kazuo declaiming in an interview with the Nihon Keizai Shimbun the ambition to raise Sony's share of the world smartphone market from the current 6th place to 3rd. Hirai is nothing if not ambitious.

Hirai believes Sony can leverage its digital camera and television technology to produce a differentiated, competitive smartphone that can capture market share from Samsung and Apple. Engineers from Sony's camera and TV divisions have been transferred to its smartphone R&D division for the task of producing a market-leading product. "Good products have started to come out," Hirai said.

Sony posits that the global smartphone market will continue to expand by double digits.  In Japan Sony is competing with the iPhone being sold by NTT Docomo.  After one year, Hirai believes Sony's Xperia device is taking market share from Apple. Interestingly, reflecting that operating resources are limited, Hirai hinted that Sony would focus on the domestic and European markets and not attempt a full sales campaign the U.S. and China.

Hirai reported that restructuring continues "according to plan" in Sony's money-losing electronics and television divisions, such that a return to profitability is in sight. In TVs, the restructuring has meant winnowing models and reducing unit production while rolling out the more competitive 4K television model which it is hoped will recapture market share.

Hirai did not comment on Sony's computer sales, but reports are that the company is reducing sales forecast numbers. A Sony SVP in charge of computer sales was quoted in the October 8 Nihon Keizai Shimbun as saying that this fiscal year's sales budget of 6.2 million units, down 18% from the previous year, will be hard to achieve. The forecast had been lowered in August and will probably be lowered again. It seems that consumers have been migrating away from computers to tablets.

Which brings us to Sharp. Friday's stock price drop within an up market, and today's further decline, occurred as the company completed a public offering of 400 million shares. Some 120-128 million of the shares—the maximum allowed—were offered to foreign investors.  Price per share for both domestic and foreign investors was 279 yen.  (The stock closed on Friday at 293 and today at 286.) Sharp is netting some JPY 119.1 billion (USD 1.2 billion) from the new issue.  But the company had hoped to sell the shares for 348 yen and net JPY 149 billion.

Whither Japan's three iconic electronics brands?  No doubt they will all survive.  I do not own any of them but if I did it would be Panasonic.  As I have suggested in earlier posts, of the three companies, Panasonic is in all ways the strongest. It also seems to have been executing—and with a growing sense of urgency–the most effective restructuring strategy.  Here is some more data:

Panasonic:  ADR price $9.72.  10/15 TSE close 961.  PBR 1.85 times. Forward PER 46.85 times.  Dividend yield 1.08%. EPS yield 2.19%. TSE YTD high 993 (5/22); low 502 (1/9).

Sony:  ADR price $19.75.  10/15 TSE close 1,938.  PBR 0.88 times. Forward PER 38.84 times. Dividend yield 1.3%. EPS yield 2.57%. TSE YTD high 2413 (5/22); low 918 (1/9).

Sharp:  ADR price:  $2.89.  10/15 TSE close 286.  PBR 2.79 times. Forward PER 69.65 times.  Dividend yield: nil. Forward EPS yield 1.41%. TSE YTD high 633 (5/21); low 234 (4/3).