2/28/2019

Centennial Resource Development (CDEV) Cut to “Market Perform” at BMO Capital Markets

Centennial Resource Development (NASDAQ:CDEV) was downgraded by research analysts at BMO Capital Markets to a “market perform” rating in a research note issued on Tuesday, The Fly reports.

Several other analysts have also recently weighed in on CDEV. Zacks Investment Research cut Centennial Resource Development from a “buy” rating to a “hold” rating in a report on Friday, November 9th. BidaskClub cut Centennial Resource Development from a “sell” rating to a “strong sell” rating in a report on Tuesday, February 12th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. set a $17.00 price target on Centennial Resource Development and gave the company a “buy” rating in a report on Friday, December 7th. Ifs Securities reaffirmed a “strong-buy” rating on shares of Centennial Resource Development in a report on Sunday, February 3rd. Finally, ValuEngine cut Centennial Resource Development from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a report on Thursday, November 8th. Three equities research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, ten have issued a hold rating, thirteen have issued a buy rating and one has given a strong buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock has a consensus rating of “Hold” and a consensus price target of $23.17.

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Shares of CDEV opened at $12.71 on Tuesday. The stock has a market cap of $3.47 billion, a P/E ratio of 45.39, a P/E/G ratio of 0.59 and a beta of 2.07. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17, a quick ratio of 0.79 and a current ratio of 0.79. Centennial Resource Development has a 52-week low of $9.87 and a 52-week high of $23.12.

Centennial Resource Development (NASDAQ:CDEV) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Monday, February 25th. The oil and natural gas company reported $0.12 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.15 by ($0.03). The company had revenue of $222.50 million for the quarter, compared to analysts’ expectations of $238.16 million. Centennial Resource Development had a return on equity of 6.57% and a net margin of 23.90%. Centennial Resource Development’s revenue for the quarter was up 34.0% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, research analysts expect that Centennial Resource Development will post 0.78 EPS for the current year.

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the stock. FMR LLC raised its holdings in shares of Centennial Resource Development by 27.0% during the 3rd quarter. FMR LLC now owns 39,567,873 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $864,558,000 after buying an additional 8,410,700 shares in the last quarter. Vanguard Group Inc raised its holdings in shares of Centennial Resource Development by 2.4% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc now owns 15,754,084 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $344,226,000 after buying an additional 370,395 shares in the last quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Centennial Resource Development by 2.4% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 15,754,084 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $344,226,000 after buying an additional 370,395 shares in the last quarter. BlackRock Inc. raised its holdings in shares of Centennial Resource Development by 7.2% during the 4th quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 8,453,179 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $93,155,000 after buying an additional 568,155 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Frontier Capital Management Co. LLC raised its holdings in shares of Centennial Resource Development by 9.4% during the 3rd quarter. Frontier Capital Management Co. LLC now owns 4,924,039 shares of the oil and natural gas company’s stock valued at $107,590,000 after buying an additional 424,015 shares in the last quarter.

Centennial Resource Development Company Profile

Centennial Resource Development, Inc, an independent oil and natural gas company, focuses on the development of unconventional oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas reserves in the United States. The company's assets primarily focus on the Delaware Basin, a sub-basin of the Permian Basin. Its properties consist of acreage blocks primarily in Reeves County in West Texas and Lea County in New Mexico.

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Analyst Recommendations for Centennial Resource Development (NASDAQ:CDEV)

2/21/2019

You're Hating Baidu Stock at the Worst Possible Time

The naysayers are piling up on Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) doorstep. China's leading search engine began the month with nearly 6.9 million shares sold short. You have to go back more than a year to find the last time Baidu had more bearish wages placed against the former dot-com darling.

Baidu isn't at its best right now. The stock is trading near December's two-year lows, and even China's own CEO has tried to temper near-term enthusiasm ahead of this week's quarterly financial update. Put another way, even Baidu doesn't seem to be putting up much of a fight against the growing crowd of boo birds betting against the online giant. 

Baidu homepage.

Image source: Baidu.

Thursday don't be late

Baidu isn't growing as quickly as it did in its prime. Its guidance four months ago was calling for a 15% to 20% uptick in revenue -- or 20% to 26% adjusted for asset sales over the past year. Wall Street's been whittling down its target, and it's now eyeing just 14% in revenue growth. 

Things are even less impressive on the bottom line, where analysts see the prior year's fourth-quarter profit of $2.15 a share replaced by $1.76 a share this time around. Wall Street pros have been scaling back their earnings forecasts in recent weeks. A month ago, they were aiming at $1.87 a share.

The pessimism heading into Thursday afternoon's report isn't a good look, and Baidu hasn't helped matters. Baidu CEO Robin Li kicked off 2019 by sending a letter to employees, warning them that winter is coming given the challenges of China's slowing economy. At least four analysts would go on to slash their price targets on Baidu last month. 

There was one upgrade. OTR Global boosted its rating on Baidu, arguing that industry checks show improving advertising trends. However, most of OTR Global's peers don't see things that way.

It's easy to be down on Baidu these days, but the smarter play appears to be contrarian. Baidu is still the undisputed champ of search in China, and that's the kind of pole position that will continue to pay off even with China's economy growing at its slowest pace in decades. Analysts are generally down on Baidu here, and the same can be said when it comes to investors given the high short interest ratio on the stock. However, Wall Street has made it a habit to underestimate Baidu's profit potential. Baidu has beaten analyst income forecasts by at least 12% in each of the past four quarters.  

Baidu has been better, but it's not broken. Even the whiff of a modest quarterly report could trigger a short squeeze, busting Baidu out of its rut. Though there's a lack of believers in Baidu these days, that's not necessarily a bad thing. 

2/20/2019

Zacks: Analysts Anticipate Simmons First National Co. (SFNC) to Post $0.57 Earnings Per Share

Wall Street brokerages predict that Simmons First National Co. (NASDAQ:SFNC) will post earnings of $0.57 per share for the current fiscal quarter, according to Zacks. Three analysts have provided estimates for Simmons First National’s earnings. Simmons First National also reported earnings of $0.57 per share in the same quarter last year. The firm is expected to issue its next earnings results on Monday, April 22nd.

According to Zacks, analysts expect that Simmons First National will report full year earnings of $2.46 per share for the current fiscal year, with EPS estimates ranging from $2.40 to $2.53. For the next fiscal year, analysts expect that the firm will post earnings of $2.68 per share, with EPS estimates ranging from $2.54 to $2.88. Zacks’ EPS averages are a mean average based on a survey of research firms that cover Simmons First National.

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Simmons First National (NASDAQ:SFNC) last issued its earnings results on Tuesday, January 22nd. The bank reported $0.61 EPS for the quarter, meeting analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.61. Simmons First National had a return on equity of 10.14% and a net margin of 26.16%. The firm had revenue of $172.37 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $177.84 million.

SFNC has been the topic of a number of recent research reports. Zacks Investment Research upgraded Simmons First National from a “hold” rating to a “buy” rating and set a $28.00 target price on the stock in a research note on Friday, October 26th. BidaskClub upgraded Simmons First National from a “sell” rating to a “hold” rating in a research note on Tuesday, October 30th. Stephens set a $32.00 target price on Simmons First National and gave the company a “buy” rating in a research note on Friday, November 16th. Finally, ValuEngine upgraded Simmons First National from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Tuesday, November 20th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, four have issued a hold rating and two have issued a buy rating to the company’s stock. The stock currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $31.60.

Shares of NASDAQ SFNC opened at $26.98 on Friday. The company has a current ratio of 1.00, a quick ratio of 1.00 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76. Simmons First National has a one year low of $22.64 and a one year high of $33.45. The stock has a market capitalization of $2.46 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.38 and a beta of 1.06.

The business also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Friday, April 5th. Stockholders of record on Friday, March 15th will be paid a dividend of $0.16 per share. This represents a $0.64 annualized dividend and a dividend yield of 2.37%. The ex-dividend date is Thursday, March 14th. This is an increase from Simmons First National’s previous quarterly dividend of $0.15. Simmons First National’s dividend payout ratio is 25.32%.

In related news, CEO George Makris, Jr. purchased 10,000 shares of the firm’s stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, January 30th. The stock was bought at an average price of $24.85 per share, for a total transaction of $248,500.00. Following the purchase, the chief executive officer now owns 220,766 shares in the company, valued at approximately $5,486,035.10. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through this link. Corporate insiders own 2.76% of the company’s stock.

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Pearl River Capital LLC bought a new stake in shares of Simmons First National during the 4th quarter worth about $27,000. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. boosted its stake in shares of Simmons First National by 61.2% during the 4th quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 4,098 shares of the bank’s stock worth $99,000 after acquiring an additional 1,556 shares in the last quarter. Quantamental Technologies LLC bought a new stake in shares of Simmons First National during the 4th quarter worth about $102,000. Paloma Partners Management Co bought a new stake in shares of Simmons First National during the 3rd quarter worth about $206,000. Finally, Jane Street Group LLC bought a new stake in shares of Simmons First National during the 2nd quarter worth about $256,000. Institutional investors own 52.62% of the company’s stock.

About Simmons First National

Simmons First National Corporation operates as the holding company for Simmons Bank that provides financial products and services to individuals and businesses. It offers checking, savings, and time deposits; loan products, including consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, and SBA lending; personal and corporate trust services; credit cards; investment management products; insurance products; and securities and investment services.

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Earnings History and Estimates for Simmons First National (NASDAQ:SFNC)

2/17/2019

[CHART] Why the 3 Biggest Signs of the Next Bear Market Are What You'd Least Expect

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There is nothing like a bull market to make investors feel great. But don't let optimistic data lead you into complacency. The market is at its most dangerous right when everyone agrees it's strong.

Think about it. When everyone is bullish, theoretically, they have already bought. If there is nobody left to buy, demand dries up, and the slightest bit of bad news can trigger a stampede to the exit doors as many people try to sell at the same time.

As you can guess, the next bear market can start in a hurry.

That's exactly what we saw when the Internet bubble popped in 2000. And when the housing and financial bubble popped in 2007.

Fortunately, investors can use three indicators as early warning signals.

When one or more of them go off, we'll know that it's time to play it a bit more conservatively or even step aside completely with all but core holdings.

And these indicators are the last place most investors will look…

Markets Move in Cycles

If you know where to look, you will see the natural ebb and flow in the stock market trace out regular periods.

Think about the annual market cycle, where some parts of the year are usually strong and others are usually weak. You may have heard this common witticism: "Sell in May and go away." The winter months – on average – perform better than the summer months.

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You may also have heard of the presidential, or four-year, cycle. Right now, the market is in the third year of the cycle. That means that if the cycle holds, the market should run into serious trouble in 2020.

Of course, that is just the average cycle. Economic or political events can make it longer or shorter, so the takeaway here is that the cycle is aging but not dead yet. Later this year, strategies should probably turn a bit more defensive.

In short, investors seeing market gains after the worst December for stocks in 30 years shouldn't get too optimistic.

Merger Activity Peaks Ahead of Bear Markets

Bull markets make companies feel good, too. After all, they are making money, and their share prices are moving higher. They look for ways to grow their businesses, and since their shares are inflated in price, they use them as currency to buy their rivals or suppliers.

next bear market

Merger and acquisition activity starts to grow, and eventually companies become willing to take more risk and pay higher prices for their targets. It's just like an individual investor chasing Bitcoin higher in 2018. We know how that ended up.

The same is true in the stock market when corporations chase deals.

Right now, the data shows a decent spike in global merger activity in early 2018. There is usually a lag between the merger peak and the stock market peak, so this particular indicator suggests that investors keep their eyes open. The exact timing, however, is not well defined.

It's simply a reminder that deal activity picking up doesn't mean the market will keep growing.

In fact, investors getting confident is another sign the market could turn bad…

Investors Are Optimistic Until the End

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

2/16/2019

SS&C Technologies Holdings (SSNC) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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SS&C Technologies Holdings (NASDAQ:SSNC) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 14, 2019 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Chantelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome to the SS&C Technologies fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 earnings call. [Operator instructions] Thank you.

Justine Stone, you may begin your conference.

Justine Stone -- Investor Relations

Hi, everyone. Welcome. Happy Valentine's Day, and thank you for joining us for our Q4 and full-year 2018 earnings call. I'm Justine Stone, head of investor relations for SS&C Technologies.

With me today is Bill Stone, chairman and chief executive officer; Rahul Kanwar, president and chief operating officer; and Patrick Pedonti, our chief financial officer. Before we get started, we need to review the safe harbor statement. Please note that various remarks we make today about future expectations, plans and prospects, including the financial outlook we provide, constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors section of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, which is on file with the SEC and can also be accessed on our website.

These forward-looking statements represent our expectations only as of today, February 14, 2019. While the company may elect to update these forward-looking statements, it specifically disclaims any obligation to do so. During today's call, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to comparable GAAP financial measures is included in today's earnings release, which is located in the Investor Relations section of our website at www.ssctech.com.

I will now turn the call over to Bill.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Justine, and thanks, everyone. Our results are 1,132.8 million in revenue -- adjusted revenue, and we earned $0.95 a share in diluted adjusted earnings per share. Both the adjusted revenue and the adjusted diluted earnings per share are very robust. Our consolidated EBITDA was 444 million, and our margin was 39.3%.

Our core businesses drove our strong performance. Q4 top line organic growth was solid at 3.3% and for the year, 4.3%. The board of directors approved 25% increase in our quarterly dividends from $0.08 per share to $0.10 per share or 40% annually. We believe our financial results warrant rewarding our shareholders while we continue to rapidly pay down debt.

We have paid down over 926 million in debt since we closed our acquisition of DST last April. And our current leverage ratio is 4.54. Last November, we voted at analyst day attended by over 100 buy-side and sell-side analysts. Each of our business units presented their opportunities and key initiatives, and we had demo booths of several of our newest products.

The analyst day also featured a demo of Singularity, our first smart accounting system, which is embedded with artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics process automation and predictive analytics. There is significant traction in the U.S., Canada and U.K. regions with more than 25 active pursuits, the biggest being in the insurance and asset management markets. I'll now turn it over to Rahul.

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Thanks, Bill. We had a strong quarter in terms of winning new mandates, identifying new opportunities and remain focused on high service levels for our customers. We have made progress with integration of our recent acquisitions and have hired some very talented people. Bernie O'Connor is now chief revenue officer in our domestic financial services business at DST, and Daniel DelMastro is the new chief revenue officer in our healthcare business.

Joe Maxwell joined as head of technology for our hedge fund administration business. We've added the responsibility for our financial markets group to Jeff Shoreman; Primatics to Christy Bremner; and the DBC, TimeShareWare and Zoologic businesses to Robert Roley. Just last week, I had all of our business unit heads in New York to review the start of 2019 and to add focus to our new initiatives. We are building and rolling out several new products and services, and our combined capabilities, including acquisitions of DST, Intralink and Eze in 2018, differentiate us in the marketplace.

We continue to find synergy opportunities at all of our recent acquisitions, and we now expect DST to generate 300 million annual run rate synergies by April 2021. We also continue to see strong organic growth in several of our businesses, including Black Diamond, alternatives, particularly real estate, and our regulatory and analytics business. Now I will mention some key deals for Q4 2018. Two advisory firms, each over 1 billion in assets, selected Black Diamond for their operations, citing our partnership approach as key to the win.

A spinout from an existing client with 2.5 billion in assets chose SS&C GlobeOp fund administration and regulatory solutions. A Hong Kong-based investment firm chose SS&C GlobeOp Fund Services for their new fund launch. A large futures shop looking to launch an equity business chose Eze OMS for its advanced trading and compliance capabilities. A 20 billion-plus firm existing, who is an GlobeOp fund administration client, chose Intralinks' platform for all fundraising, investor reporting, portfolio management and M&A activity across all regions and lines of business.

Four individual clients chose DST's business products, process solutions product, AWD. I will now turn you over to Patrick to run through the financials.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Rahul. Results for the fourth quarter of 2008 were GAAP revenue of 1,111,000,000, GAAP net income of 58.7 million and diluted EPS of $0.23. Adjusted revenue was 1,132,000,000, excluding the adjustments for implementing the new revenue recognition standard and the acquired deferred revenue adjustment for the DST, Eze, and Intralinks acquisitions. We had a very strong quarter.

Adjusted revenue was up 157%. Adjusted operating income increased 131%, and adjusted EPS was $0.95 or 75% increase over Q4 2017. Total adjusted revenue increased 693.4 million over Q4 2017. The acquisitions of DST, Eze and Intralinks and CommonWealth and a couple other smaller acquisitions contributed 680.8 million in the quarter.

Foreign exchange had an unfavorable impact of 1.9 million or 0.4% due to weakness of foreign currencies in the quarter. Organic growth on a constant currency basis was 3.3% in the quarter, driven by the strength in the alternatives business. Adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter was 421.5 million, an increase of 239.1 million or 131% from the fourth quarter of 2017. Operating margins improved sequentially from 34.4% in the third quarter to 37.2% in the fourth quarter as margins improved in the DST business and our core businesses.

DST's operating margins were 33.3% in the fourth quarter, and annual run rate implemented cost synergies reached 245 million as of December 2018. We have increased our DST cost synergies targets of 300 million annual run rate by April 2021. And foreign exchange had an impact of 3.5 million on expenses in the quarter, positive impact. Adjusted consolidated EBITDA was 444.8 million or 39.3% of adjusted revenue, an increase of 132% from Q4 2017.

Net interest expense for the fourth quarter was 97.3 million and includes 4.2 million of noncash amortized financing costs and OID. The average interest rate in the quarter for our term facility was 4.77% compared to 4.36% in the fourth quarter of 2017. We recorded a GAAP tax provision in the quarter of 50.2 million or 46% of pre-tax income. The full-year GAAP tax provision was 17.5%.

Adjusted net income was 243 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.95. The adjusted net income excludes 142.5 million of amortization of intangible assets, 4.2 million of noncash debt issuance costs, 20.8 million of stock-based compensation, 19.6 million of purchase accounting adjustments, 11.3 million of adjustments related to adoption of the new revenue recognition standard 606 and 21.4 million of nonoperating costs, including 16.3 million related to mark-to-market adjustment on investments and 4.3 million in severance costs related to staff reductions. And the effective tax rate for adjusted net income, we used 26%. Diluted shares increased 19.6% over Q4 2017, mostly due to the equity offering of 30 million shares of common stock associated with the acquisition of DST, 9.9 million shares related to the Intralinks acquisition and an increase due to the impact of the option issuance during the year.

The shares issued for the Intralinks transaction were only partially weighted in the quarter as the acquisition was completed on November 16. On our balance sheet and cash flow, we ended the year with 167 million of cash, 8,355,000,000 of gross debt for a net debt position of 8,188,000,000. Operating cash flow for the 12 months ended 2018 was 640.1 million, 168 million and a 35% increase compared to the same period of 2017. The DST acquisition and financing costs and severance costs impacted operating cash flow negatively by 244 million during the year.

Highlights for the 12 months. We borrowed net 5.6 billion for the year. We paid down 926 million of total debt since the DST acquisition. In the fourth quarter, we issued 1.875 billion of debt related to the acquisitions of Eze and Intralinks.

For the year, we paid 268 million of interest compared to 102 million in 2017, and the average interest rate in the quarter was 4.77%. For the full year, we paid 143 million of cash taxes compared to 67 million in 2017. Our accounts receivable DSO was at 52.1 days as of December compared to 55.2 days as of September 2018, a significant improvement. We used 89.1 million for capital expenditures and capitalized software mostly for facilities expansion, IT and as well as leasehold improvements and capitalized software.

And for the year, we declared -- we paid 70.9 million of common stock dividends compared to 54 million in 2017. Our LTM consolidated EBITDA, which we use for our covenant compliance, was 1,804,700,000 as of December '18 and includes 523.5 million of acquired EBITDA and cost savings related to the acquisition. Based on a net debt, our total leverage was 4.54 times as of December. On outlook for the first-quarter and the full-year 2019, our current expectation for the first quarter is adjusted revenue in the range of 1,132,000,000 to 1,162,000,000, adjusted net income of 217 million to 223 million, and diluted shares in the range of 161.8 to 263.3 million.

For the full year, we're currently expecting adjusted revenue in the range of 4,690,000,000 to 4,790,000,000, which represents organic revenue growth in the range of 1.9 to 4.1%; adjusted net income of 970 million to 1,015,000,000; and diluted shares of 264.5 million to 266.5 million. We expect the adjusted tax rate to be 26% for the full year. Cash for operating activities will be in a range of 1,095,000,000 to 1,135,000,000 and capital expenditures in the range of 2.6 to 3% of total revenues. And I'll turn it over back to Bill.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Patrick. We're proud of our accomplishments in 2018 and looking back to when we went public in 2010 when we finished with 329 million in revenue. Looking forward, we see significant opportunities throughout the world. As we ramp up our sales force and deliver on our technology initiatives, we expect to succeed.

We will be at conferences and investor meetings throughout the year and hope to see some of you at those. Now I'll turn it over to questions. 

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from Rayna Kumar with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Rayna Kumar -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Could you pull out the organic revenue growth rate for the alternatives business in the fourth quarter and then your expectations for the first quarter and 2019 as a whole, please?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think that's Patrick.

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Patrick, you want to take that?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I'm not sure. The alternatives organic growth rate in the fourth quarter, is that the question? I really didn't hear it.

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, and Q1 and the guidance.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

In the fourth quarter, the alternatives organic growth was 5.9% fourth quarter 2018 and the guidance in Q1 is also 5.9%.

Rayna Kumar -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

And if you can also talk a little bit about DST's healthcare business, the client retention in that business, new bookings growth. And does SS&C see that as -- is SS&C looking at strategic options for the healthcare business?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We are not. The business is getting stronger. We brought in some great people, Daniel DelMastro as chief revenue officer, Tory Belgoti as the senior vice president of sales. So we're optimistic, and we look forward to reporting on our successes in the following quarters.

Rayna Kumar -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS. Your line is open.

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

Hey, good evening everyone. Just staying on the topic of organic growth for a second here. If I heard you right, at the guidance, 1.9 to 4.1%, I think 3% is the midpoint. I think if I remember correctly at the analyst day, you were kind of pointing everyone to maybe like a three and half percent growth rate, not to be too focusing on that, but like it obviously seems a little bit lower.

So just maybe discuss a little bit what has changed in the last few months. I mean, obviously, everybody has seen what's going on in the fourth quarter in hedge fund land, etc. So has your thinking changed a little bit? Or what's the change here?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I don't think there's really a whole big change here, Alex. I think it's just that, as we get deeper and deeper into these acquisitions, that a lot of that is taking a lot of time. And we also are at lumpier kinds of sized businesses or deals here.

So I think the range we're trying to have is wider just based on the size of the deals that we have. And so I just think that is how a few tenths of a percent on organic growth sell out.

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

OK, fair enough. And then maybe just on kind of all of these deals that you're integrating right now. I heard -- in some of the prepared remarks, you talked about, I think, even like existing customer buyings or switching to Intralinks or using Intralinks now. I mean, are these real cross-selling wins already? Or are these just stuff that everybody was individually working on before? And then just on that same topic, given that you are restructuring your DST sales team, anything that you've seen already in terms of early fruits of labor that they're doing a better job over there, maybe hopeful that the organic growth at DST can improve from what's been a little bit lackluster in the past? Any sort of color what's happening not just on the cost but more on the revenue opportunity side?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. You know what, as I said, right, we -- and Rahul commented, Bernie O'Connor came in as chief revenue officer of domestic financial services business. He's already reorganized that and has people on the ground. I think since January 1, I think he's increased our pipeline by 50 million.

I think Daniel DelMastro has been all over the country in the healthcare business. We see opportunities everywhere. As we've spoken on the last two to three calls, we really see an opportunity in the mid-market. Otherwise, the mid-market has to go to one of their big behemoth competitors.

So we think that's a tremendous opportunity for us, and we plan on exploiting it. So we're pretty optimistic about where we sit, and we hope to report similar progress in 90 days or so.

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Dan Perlin with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks, guys, and good evening. I'm obviously happy to see the synergies for DST getting raised here. I'm -- my question, I guess, is twofold. One is kind of what did you get -- what led you to be able to kind of crank them up so fast from your original guide.

Like, it was -- it's clearly been significant. And secondly, to kind of put that bogey out there all the way out to 2021, I'm wondering why -- what it's going to take to get the incremental 55 million or so.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Again, Dan, it's a pretty big place, right, 14,400 employees, 1,600 contractors when we took them over, 2.2 billion or so in revenue. We were -- we're trying to be somewhat sober and conservative about what we were doing and want to make sure that we weren't stepping on trapdoors, right? So the more we got our sea legs, the more Mike Sleightholme have made a nice contribution. The people at DST, whether it's Terry Metzger in domestic financial services or Willie Slattery internationally or John Geli in retirement or Jonathan Boehm in healthcare, they're smart, capable, hard-working people. And I think we kind of released them to go after the opportunities that we have, and I think that they've done a really good job.

Nick Wright, who's Willie's right-hand guy, and a number of other ones have really participated in ways that have really helped us. Anthony Caiafa, our chief technology officer, is getting his arms around the big data centers. And they had a big spend, and they still have a big spend. It's just not quite as big.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Understood. Can I just get you to update just so we're clear? You're at four and a half times leverage right now. Your target, I thought, was to get down to kind of four by the end of '19. Has that changed in any way? I mean, the pace of deleveraging has been pretty significant.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Based on our current plan, certainly, we use all free cash flow to pay down debt in '19. We'll be around 3.9 times, so we'll be below four times.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

OK. And then just on that same vein, can you just remind us your appetite? I know you got a lot going on and you've already done a lot of acquisitions. But it is part of your DNA to do more deals. And so as you get down toward that, should we be expecting kind of that to be the leverage that you got to get to before you'd step back in and look at other additional opportunities in the market? Or is there appetite to do so? And how does that pipeline look?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So I wouldn't say that we're glued on the sidelines. We would certainly buy anything that's been in our strategic radar. We may not use as much debt as we did in the past, and while that's unfortunate, that's what happens when you get leverage to the point of four and a half times.

But we're going to do what's best for our shareholders, and that's increase our earnings and hopefully increase our cash flow. And we're going to pay down debt quickly, as we've said, 926 million since April 16, 2018. That's a pretty good number. And I think that tuck-in acquisitions, we're looking at all the time.

We probably -- we have four, five of them that we're in some semblance of possibly purchasing. Now larger ones, there's a few that are out there that are 100 million in revenue, 30 million in EBITDA. You -- we're not spending a billion and a half for one of those. So we'll have to see what kind of properties are out there and whether or not we can get what we believe is a disciplined price.

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thank you, guys.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brad Zelnick with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Kevin Ma -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi. It's Kevin Ma on for Brad. Can you give us any update on progress of Intralink and Eze so far in terms of synergy targets? And I know it's still early into those acquisitions. But what sort of cross-sell opportunities are you seeing that maybe become more apparent now that weren't so obvious early?

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, so this is Rahul. We're really positive about both Intralinks and Eze, and Leif O'Leary at Intralinks and Jeff Shoreman and their teams have done a nice job of starting the integration process. We have already implemented some synergies. We're certainly on target or on plan for the time lines that we had at the start of the process.

And as you pointed out, the thing that we're most focused on is the joint revenue creation opportunities. So in conjunction with Eze, we've already sold some deals, where as is the order management system, and we're doing middle and back-office services. We expect that to continue. We're also looking at our development plans for Eze and their new product, Eclipse, and trying to that closer to things that we're building.

And then Intralinks has some of the biggest private equity firms and real asset firms in the world in their customer base, and those are many of the same firms that we're providing fund administration services or seek to provide fund administration services to. So there's a natural cross-sell and overlap, and that process is getting started. So good progress so far.

Kevin Ma -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

And I might have missed it. But would you mind breaking down what the cost synergies that were achieved in the quarter for each of the acquisitions?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

So we're -- these implemented, right, annual run rate synergies.

Kevin Ma -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

That's right.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

So DST was at 245 million, and Intralinks and Eze combined are at about 14 million.

Kevin Ma -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Hugh Miller with Buckingham. Your line is open.

Hugh Miller -- Buckingham -- Analsyt

Hi, there. You guys had mentioned about the DST opportunity in the middle market. I was wondering if you could flesh that out a bit more and maybe provide a little color on the current revenue for DST in that segment and kind of how you're viewing the addressable market opportunity for that business.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, the current revenue is approximately 450 million in revenue, 450 million to 470 million, I think. And again, it's obviously a national business. We have any number of large opportunities in our pipeline. We have closed some additional businesses in our pharmacy business, and we're optimistic about that.

And we just think that there's lots of health plans around the country. And right now most of the health insurance and health administration, pharmacy benefit management businesses are dominated by UnitedHealthcare with Optum or CVS with Aetna or Cigna and Express Scripts. So we think we have a great shot if we execute to be No. 4 in a short -- relatively short period of time over the next two to three years.

And currently, we're about No. 10.

Hugh Miller -- Buckingham -- Analsyt

And then one other follow-up. Just the diluted share count guidance for 2019 was just a bit below where we were looking for. Is there any assumption for share repurchase in that number?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

There's no share repurchase in that number.

Hugh Miller -- Buckingham -- Analsyt

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Peter Heckmann with Davidson. Your line is open.

Peter Heckmann -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my call. Just for clarification, and I apologize if you've gone through this. Patrick, I think you had said that organic growth implied in first-quarter guidance is 5.9%. Did you mean that 5.9% is for admin? And so what would be the overall organic growth?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, the 5.9% in Q1 of '19 was for the alternatives business. For Q1 '19, the midpoint is 3.3% organic growth, and the range is 5 to 1.7% on the low end.

Peter Heckmann -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Great, that's helpful. And then, if I remember correctly, DST had some attrition in the U.K. and that was going to hit this year. How are you thinking about that? And how are you treating it from an organic growth calculation basis?

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

So I think -- sorry, Patrick, go ahead. Go ahead.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

I mean, DST becomes organic, right, in mid-April, right, so not in the first quarter, still acquisition revenue. And at this point in the calculations that we gave you, we're not making any adjustment for business that they might have lost before we acquired them. So this is just a straight calculation right now.

Peter Heckmann -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Got it. Got it. OK. And then, Rahul, you did make a comment that Black Diamond was seeing strong growth.

Can you talk about that advisor space? Seems like an area that's benefiting from several secular trends. Haven't really seen as much acquisition activity from SS&C in that space in terms of expanding the breadth of solutions. How are you thinking about that space right now? Are valuations prohibited?

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

I think that we're really focused on our own growth opportunities. We've looked at some things and I think we'll continue to look at some things, and we will look at deals particularly as they're complementary to our solution set. But I think, in general, we've got a really good business with the combination of core growth in our customer base, so the things we do now as well as new products that we're building out such as Rebalancer, Black Diamond Link and a couple other ones. And we have done some small acquisitions.

We bought Salentica, and we bought Modestspark. And that's primarily a way to extend the capability, and we'll keep doing that.

Peter Heckmann -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Shutler with William Blair. Your line is open.

Andrew Nicholas -- William Blair -- Analyst

Hi, guys. This is actually Andrew Nicholas on for Chris. A lot of my questions have been asked, but I did have one about the alts business. I think you said around 6% or 5.9% organic growth that you expect in the first quarter, which is particularly strong, at least from my perspective, given negative fourth-quarter market.

So just wondering if you could expand a little bit on where you're seeing strength in that business and where you expect that growth to come from, whether it be from net new assets, new fund launches, pricing or something else.

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes. So I think 5.9% is what we did in Q4, right? And that's, I think, in the middle of those choppy markets as well. So we really do have very good momentum from a sales standpoint, right? That's the primary source for new revenue, where we're competing every day for new mandates and a lot of them are competitive takeaways. And as people look at our technology and services capability relative to those of our competitors, we've got some pretty good opportunities.

So I would say that's the predominant source for kind of growth, and that's true in our hedge business. It's also very true in our private equity and real assets business. Real assets, in particular, has been growing very strong. And I think -- we think we're going to keep continuing that throughout 2019.

So that's the basis for the guidance.

Andrew Nicholas -- William Blair -- Analyst

And then maybe one for Patrick. Looking at the P&L, it looks like license and maintenance revenue grew about 10 million, 11 million in each of the last two quarters looking at it quarter-over-quarter. But the cost of licensing and maintenance revenue actually went down a touch over that same period. Can you help me understand why that might be the case?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

There were several onetime license deals in the DST business that helped that growth over the last couple of quarters. And I think their cost structure is down as we've implemented the synergies. So I think that's the biggest impact there.

Andrew Nicholas -- William Blair -- Analyst

OK, so primarily relates to DST. OK thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Mayank Tandon with Needham & Company. Your line is open.

Mayank Tandon -- Needham and Company -- Analyst

Thank you. Good evening.Bill, can you talk about any of the regulatory changes globally that might be a tailwind or headwind for you over time? I think in the past, it's been more of a tailwind but would be curious to see if there's anything out there in the horizon that investors might not be focused on that could be a driver for your business over time.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think, Mayank, that we have a really good regulatory and analytics business. Mike Megaw runs that for us. And there's a number of things that we're rolling out such as GDPR and some other ones along those lines. Whether or not the DOL rules on RIAs, how that finally gets flushed out is a little hard to tell.

Same with what's going on with the changes in Dodd-Frank. But we think on either side, right? Whether or not there's going to be more regulatory, which means we're going to sell into that or there's going to be an easier regulatory environment, which means there's going to be more start-ups, and we'll get our fair share of that, too.

Mayank Tandon -- Needham and Company -- Analyst

Got it. And then a couple of housekeeping items. What was the AUA levels at year-end? I think I may have missed that if you've already mentioned it. And also for Patrick, what is the FX headwind you're expecting on revenue for '19? And also, is there any expense item that is impacted by FX and how we should account for that?

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

So AUA at the end of Q4 was 1.69 trillion.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

And on FX, there's about -- we're currently -- our forecast is currently using average January 2019 FX rate. And if you compare those to the 2018 rates, so it's about 11 million of negative FX in the year, of which majority is in the first six months of the year. So it's about 2 million in Q1. And when DST comes on as organic in Q2, there's about 7 to 8 million of FX since they have a lot of business in British pounds.

So right now the current estimate is about 2 million, 7 million to 8 million in the second, 2 million in the third and kind of flat in the fourth. That's based on current FX rates.

Mayank Tandon -- Needham and Company -- Analyst

Is that offset on the expense side from hedges? Or should we expect some expense items to be also affected by FX in the same vein?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

We -- DST has some legacy hedges on the Indian rupee that are going to terminate in March, but other than that, we don't have any expense hedges. So we had, I think, a 3.5 million benefit in Q4 for expenses. And based on where rates are today, it'd probably be pretty similar in Q1 and then would taper down.

Mayank Tandon -- Needham and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Chris Donat with Sandler O'Neill. Your line is open.

Chris Donat -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

Patrick, want to ask one question about the 2019 guidance and putting the first quarter in there with it because, with simple math, it implies you'd pick up about $0.05 a quarter in EPS over the course of the year. I'm just wondering if you expect faster EPS growth in the front half of the year, back half of the year. Is there anything notable in terms of expense synergies we should be thinking about just as we make our quarterly estimates for the course of '19?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

I mean, we do expect growth to be a little stronger in the second half of the year, especially in Q4 when Eze becomes organic and Intralinks becomes organic for a partial quarter. So we think we'll see a little bit of a jump in Q2 in revenue and then see stronger growth in Q3 and Q4.

Chris Donat -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

OK. And on the expense side, anything notable in terms of, I don't know, facility, like duplicative facility costs eliminate or anything like that we should just be aware of? Or nothing big?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

I don't think anything big. I mean, we're going to do -- we're going to transition some of DST's India operations to contractors to in-house. I mean, we'll have some double costs for a while, but it probably won't be significant. It might be 2 million, 4 million or something like that, as we transition from contractors to in-house operations and we've got kind of duplication of facilities.

So there'll be a little bit of that. The first quarter is seasonally a higher cost because benefit costs are higher in the first quarter when you've got payroll-related taxes that are much higher until employees hit the cap. So you've got -- we typically have higher expenses in the first quarter, and then we might have 2 million or 4 million of duplicate costs in facilities in India as we transition to in-house operations.

Chris Donat -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

OK. And then, Bill, wanted to ask one question about the dividend and how the board looked at it. I'm sure most equity holders are happy to have a higher dividend, but I'm wondering if they had a look at the trade-off between the paydown of debt. Was the board looking at the year-end 2019 leverage ratio and saying, OK, we're below our threshold, so we can afford another $0.01 on the quarterly dividend? Or did that factor into your thought process?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think, Chris, the whole Q2, Q3 and Q4, I think the outperformance created tremendous amount of confidence in our ability to generate cash flow. I think we've thought we were going to end Q4 at 4.7 and we ended 4.54. On a 0.2 of a turn, that's a couple of hundred million dollars, and I think the increase in our dividend's about 20 million. Yes, we're trying to be good custodians of the shareholders' money and try to allocate that money in ways that the vast majority of our shareholders would applaud.

Chris Donat -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

OK. Thanks very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Schmidt with Citi.

Andrew Schmidt -- Citi -- Analyst

Just a clarification. When you talk about lumpy deal pipeline, is that mostly a comment on DST? And then, correspondingly, if we think about the organic revenue outlook for FY '19, what does the low and high end of the outlook assume for DST performance?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, first, on the lumpy side, I would say it's both our fund administration businesses and the DST businesses. The size of the deals are getting larger. The -- as we expand our capabilities, both from a breadth standpoint and a depth standpoint, we become an increasingly capable competitor. So the size of the deals that we get asked to bid on have become larger, and then the size of the deals that we win have become larger.

So I think that's going to create some lumpiness as we swallow these bigger deals. And I would say that's really what I'm talking about on the lumpy deals. And then maybe, Patrick, you can take the second half of that question.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Let me try to answer that question. So I think for the year, we've got about 100 million in a range of revenue, OK? And in that guidance, the range for the acquisitions, which is mostly DST, a large portion of it, acquisition revenue is probably about 25 million. So out of the 100 million, 25 million is acquisitions.

Does that answer your question?

Andrew Schmidt -- Citi -- Analyst

It was more around, in terms of just the variation between the low end and the high end, what's the assumption for DST growth.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, I think at the midpoint of the range, DST is up 0.5% or so for the year, right? And there's probably -- it's probably something like another 1% shift between the ranges.

Andrew Schmidt -- Citi -- Analyst

OK, that's really helpful. Appreciate the color. And then just if you could discuss hedge fund performance in the fourth quarter and then, I guess, at a high level, how revenue retention performed, that would be helpful. And then just a follow-up to that, just expectations for hedge fund performance into '19.

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes. So I'll talk about hedge fund performance. Look, in general, right, we're not as focused on hedge fund performance as we are on sales execution and how many of our products and services we can cross sell into clients we already have because, ultimately, that's far more correlated to our revenue. So I think we had a mix of different kinds of performance.

We certainly had choppy markets and funds that didn't fare as well, and then we had winners, right? And we don't really have a assumption for what future performance is going to be when we guide toward 2019 because, once again, we don't really view that as being extremely material to how we're going to do. Patrick, maybe you can talk about client retention.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, so we -- on client retention, we ended the full year. So if you look at client retention in the last 12 months, at 95% for the full year.

Andrew Schmidt -- Citi -- Analyst

OK that's good to hear. All right. Thanks, guys, appreciate it.

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Essex with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Hi. good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question Bill, just a quick one maybe for you. I think you mentioned some -- you're ramping up sales force.

And I guess, I'd just like to know kind of what have the changes been post DST, Eze, Intralinks? What kind of -- how is that ramping? And I guess, what is your outlook for productivity into 2019?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, as we've pointed out in our remarks earlier, we've brought in Bernie O'Connor in the domestic financial services business of DST, and we brought in Daniel DelMastro in the healthcare business and Tory Belgoti. We have some great people in our sales organization already. And so we're adding to that group and we are building pipelines. And we're pretty excited about what our opportunities are, and I will hopefully report to you as we begin to close those opportunities.

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Any meaningful changes, say, in the OMS business versus maybe what you had in terms of better productivity on one side of the house versus the other?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, obviously, Eze is a big OMS provider, and we think that they have a brand-new product coming out called Eclipse that's gotten some pretty good traction. As with all of our acquisitions, we're in a hurry. And I think Jeff Shoreman, and Mike Hutner are quite aware of that, and they're doing a good job as is the -- our head of Europe, Mr. Quinlan.

So we're -- that's just the way we operate. Let's see if we can go faster and at the same time, pay attention to our customers in a way that maybe improves our opportunities because it improves our references.

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe one quick follow-up for Patrick. I think alternatives organic growth was mentioned in the quarter but overall organic growth, maybe just if we could tick that off?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

In the fourth quarter?

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Right.

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

The 3.3% was overall organic growth in the fourth quarter and 4.3% for the full year of 2018.

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Super helpful. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jackson Ader with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Jackson Ader -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my question, guys. Bill, first for you. I know that it's only been about a year that you've had DST and we're already to 33% margins. But is there anything structurally, as you look at that business, that may -- that would keep it from getting to that kind of 40% target you've always talked about for SS&C?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I don't think -- I think that the key to our ability to generate our margins is to make sure that the first job is customer satisfaction, right? So we're -- the 40% margin really means that we hire talented people. We train them very well. And generally, we can use one person versus a lot of places use two or three people. So we also run our foreign operations with foreigners, right? So in general, we don't use hardly any ex-pats.

Not that we don't think that they're talented but they're expensive. So we just as well not do that. We also don't tend to break leases. We stay in those places until the leases expire, and then we move the people.

And other people, they jam them all together because it's easier to do Kumbaya. We do remote Kumbaya and try to get the people to realize that breaking that lease is going to hit that bonus pool, and people are generally pretty agreeable to that.

Jackson Ader -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. And then a follow-up question for either Rahul or Patrick. Any particular geographical pockets of strength to call out within the alternatives business kind of around that 5.9% growth?

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

I think Asia Pac has been growing pretty fast for us, right, still a smaller part of the business, so that obviously gets mitigated a little. But we expect that to continue to be very strong in '19.

Jackson Ader -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from Alex Kramm with UBS. Your line is open.

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

Oh, hey. Hello again. My follow-up was actually asked already. But just while I'm here, real quick, any bigger picture comments on kind of like DST's end markets and what you're expecting there? I think when we talk to, I guess, executives there, it sounds like there's still an expectation for a lot of spending.

Are you hearing the same thing? And then I think in that market, we've also seen a little bit more M&A. So maybe just talk about how that may impact you? I mean, Invesco, Oppenheimer, for example, is an example that, I think, may actually benefit you. I don't know how specifically you can talk about that. But any bigger picture thought on that end market and what's happening there?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, as you know, that -- those end markets are -- they're great end markets, right? The world's getting wealthier. There's a lot of money to manage. And of course, there's some headwinds of passive to active. But it is not that doom's day scenario that some people paint.

We have a lot of new products and services that come out to those groups of clients of ours, and we're getting very close to them about really delivering technology more rapidly. Our advanced workstation -- our advanced work distributor, which is a workflow product, is highly, highly functional. And we're really building out a whole new generation and in a hurry. Our WalletShare product, which was going to be rolled out in the first quarter of 2020, we rolled out in Europe.

We rolled out in the fourth quarter of '18. So as you start to accelerate the technological advances for your clients, it's going to help them accelerate their businesses, and it's both going to accelerate their businesses on a revenue standpoint but also in their ability to manage their costs.

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

All right thanks again.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ken Hill with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.

Ken Hill -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

Good evening. I think you might have just touched on this a couple of questions back, but -- with DST, but kind of on overall margins, you've seen nice progress here over the past couple of quarters, hit 37%. How are you thinking about the trajectory throughout the rest of this year as you get 40%? And kind of what things would you note maybe on the revenue side or expense side that could push that higher or a little bit lower for you guys?

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, I think we have teams of people looking at all kinds of things. Obviously, we have data processing centers that are used by DST, the data processing centers are used by Intralinks. We have data processing centers that are used by Eze, and obviously, we have historic data processing centers. So I think Anthony Caiafa, who's our new chief technology officer, who's probably been with us 10 months, very talented, very capable, came out of Bloomberg, and he's doing a great job for us.

That's a lot of expense, and so understanding how to really make that redundant and highly performing and very cost effective are 3 objectives he has. And so far, he's done a great job, and he has a number of very talented people working with him.

Ken Hill -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

OK, that's helpful. And I guess, just one modeling, one from an interest expense question just given all the debt issued and the aggressive paydown you guys have. Any guidance you can provide for the next couple of quarters as far as interest expense coming up?

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, we're -- we'll use all free cash flow to pay down debt. Typically, our first quarter is a little slower because that's when we pay our employee annual bonuses, but then it'll pick back up in the second, third and fourth quarter. We're currently, in our plan, expecting interest rates to stay fairly stable from where they are today at about 4.75, 4.8%. Those -- we're at LIBOR plus 2.25%.

So we're currently assuming that interest rates stay pretty stable for the year. And then other than the first quarter -- first quarter will be the slowest debt paydown quarter, and then it will pick up in the next three quarters.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Bill Stone.

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Thanks, everybody, for listening to our call, and we look forward to talking to you, some of you in person and then the rest of you on the call next quarter. Thanks.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 58 minutes

Call Participants:

Justine Stone -- Investor Relations

Bill Stone -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Rahul Kanwar -- President and Chief Operating Officer

Patrick Pedonti -- Chief Financial Officer

Rayna Kumar -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Alex Kramm -- UBS -- Analyst

Dan Perlin -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Kevin Ma -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hugh Miller -- Buckingham -- Analsyt

Peter Heckmann -- D.A. Davidson -- Analyst

Andrew Nicholas -- William Blair -- Analyst

Mayank Tandon -- Needham and Company -- Analyst

Chris Donat -- Sandler O'Neill -- Analyst

Andrew Schmidt -- Citi -- Analyst

Brian Essex -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Jackson Ader -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Ken Hill -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

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2/15/2019

Insider Selling: SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) CFO Sells 5,080 Shares of Stock

SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC) CFO Kimberly K. Nelson sold 5,080 shares of SPS Commerce stock in a transaction on Thursday, February 14th. The shares were sold at an average price of $95.95, for a total value of $487,426.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief financial officer now owns 48,529 shares in the company, valued at approximately $4,656,357.55. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink.

SPSC stock traded down $0.73 during midday trading on Thursday, reaching $105.55. 445,800 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 169,665. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.62 billion, a P/E ratio of 251.31, a P/E/G ratio of 3.03 and a beta of 0.76. SPS Commerce, Inc. has a 52 week low of $55.59 and a 52 week high of $113.31.

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SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, February 12th. The software maker reported $0.53 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts’ consensus estimates of $0.33 by $0.20. The business had revenue of $65.20 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $63.90 million. SPS Commerce had a return on equity of 5.55% and a net margin of 3.16%. SPS Commerce’s quarterly revenue was up 12.2% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the company posted $0.25 EPS. On average, sell-side analysts anticipate that SPS Commerce, Inc. will post 1.3 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Several equities analysts have recently issued reports on SPSC shares. Needham & Company LLC reiterated a “buy” rating and issued a $110.00 price target (up previously from $64.00) on shares of SPS Commerce in a research note on Wednesday. Oppenheimer lifted their price target on SPS Commerce from $85.00 to $95.00 and gave the company an “outperform” rating in a research note on Friday, October 26th. ValuEngine upgraded SPS Commerce from a “buy” rating to a “strong-buy” rating in a research note on Wednesday. BidaskClub lowered SPS Commerce from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note on Tuesday, November 20th. Finally, Zacks Investment Research upgraded SPS Commerce from a “hold” rating to a “strong-buy” rating and set a $106.00 price target on the stock in a research note on Thursday, November 1st. Two research analysts have rated the stock with a hold rating, nine have assigned a buy rating and two have issued a strong buy rating to the stock. SPS Commerce has a consensus rating of “Buy” and an average price target of $98.36.

A number of hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. BlackRock Inc. grew its position in SPS Commerce by 0.3% during the 4th quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 2,764,683 shares of the software maker’s stock worth $227,754,000 after acquiring an additional 7,844 shares during the last quarter. FMR LLC lifted its holdings in SPS Commerce by 19.8% during the 2nd quarter. FMR LLC now owns 1,218,502 shares of the software maker’s stock worth $89,536,000 after buying an additional 201,002 shares during the period. Vanguard Group Inc lifted its holdings in SPS Commerce by 6.7% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc now owns 1,104,668 shares of the software maker’s stock worth $109,627,000 after buying an additional 69,574 shares during the period. Vanguard Group Inc. lifted its holdings in SPS Commerce by 6.7% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 1,104,668 shares of the software maker’s stock worth $109,627,000 after buying an additional 69,574 shares during the period. Finally, Conestoga Capital Advisors LLC lifted its holdings in SPS Commerce by 5.8% during the 4th quarter. Conestoga Capital Advisors LLC now owns 536,582 shares of the software maker’s stock worth $44,204,000 after buying an additional 29,576 shares during the period. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 98.51% of the company’s stock.

TRADEMARK VIOLATION NOTICE: “Insider Selling: SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) CFO Sells 5,080 Shares of Stock” was published by Ticker Report and is the property of of Ticker Report. If you are accessing this report on another site, it was illegally copied and republished in violation of US and international trademark and copyright laws. The original version of this report can be accessed at https://www.tickerreport.com/banking-finance/4152414/insider-selling-sps-commerce-inc-spsc-cfo-sells-5080-shares-of-stock.html.

SPS Commerce Company Profile

SPS Commerce, Inc provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions worldwide. It provides solutions through the SPS Commerce platform, a cloud-based product suite that enhances the way retailers, suppliers, distributors, logistics firms, and other trading partners manage and fulfill orders, manage sell-through performance, and source new items.

See Also: How accurate is the Rule of 72?

Insider Buying and Selling by Quarter for SPS Commerce (NASDAQ:SPSC)

2/14/2019

Diodes Inc (DIOD) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

Diodes Inc  (NASDAQ:DIOD)

Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 13, 2019, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents: Prepared Remarks Questions and Answers Call Participants Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to Diodes Incorporated's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. At the conclusion of today's conference call, instructions will be given for the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, Wednesday, February 13, 2019. I would now like to turn the call over to Leanne Sievers of Shelton Group Investor Relations. Leanne, please go ahead.

Leanne K. Sievers -- President, Investor Relations

Good afternoon and welcome to Diodes' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. I'm Leanne Sievers, President of Shelton Group, Diodes' Investor Relations firm.

Joining us today are Diodes' President and CEO, Dr. Keh-Shew Lu; Chief Financial Officer, Rick White; Vice President of Worldwide Sales and Marketing, Emily Yang; and Director of Investor Relations, Laura Mehrl. Before I turn the call over to Dr. Lu, I'd like to remind our listeners that the results announced today are preliminary, as they are subject to the Company finalizing the closing procedures and customary quarterly and year-end review by the Company's independent registered public accounting firm. As such these results are unaudited and subject to revision until the Company files its Form 10-K for the fiscal year 2018. In addition, management's prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and management may make additional forward-looking statements in response to your questions.

Therefore the Company claims the protection of the Safe Harbor for forward-looking statements that is contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ from those discussed today and therefore we refer you to more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Forms 10-K and 10-Q. In addition, any projections as to the Company's future performance, represent management's estimates as of today, February 13, 2019. Diodes assumes no obligation to update these projections in the future as market conditions may or may not change, except to the extent required by applicable law.

Additionally, the Company's press release and management's statements during this conference call will include discussions of certain measures and financial information, and GAAP and non-GAAP terms. Included in the company's press release are definitions and reconciliations of GAAP to GAAP items, which provide additional details. Also throughout the Company's press release and management statements during this conference call, we will refer to net income attributable to common stockholders as GAAP net income. For those of you unable to listen to the entire call at this time, a recording will be available via webcast for 90 days in the Investor Relations section of Diodes' website at www.diodes.com.

And now I'll turn the call over to Diodes' President and CEO, Dr. Keh-Shew Lu. Dr. Lu, please go ahead.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Leanne. Welcome everyone and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that 2018 represented the best performing year in Diodes' history with the achievement of record financials, 15% organic revenue growth, driven by continued market share gains and a 75% increase in non-GAAP profitability over the prior year. Our ongoing focus on the automotive and industrial sectors resulted in annual revenue growth from those target end markets of 38% and 29%, respectively, and a combined 35% of total revenue. Additionally, our Pericom business, excluding frequency control products, grew 24% year-over-year to almost 10% of revenue primarily as a result of our increased content in high-end PC, server, storage and datacenter markets.

During 2018, we made significant progress on Diodes' positioning at key customers and gaining share, not only within product lines but also across multiple applications at the same customer. In fact, some of our largest customers use Diodes content in nearly all products they offer, which provides greater diversification for Diodes as well as a deeper relationship with those customers. Our Pericom products have also provided us greater leverage, creating expanded opportunities in new end equipment and applications as well as additional cross-selling opportunities for our other product offerings.

More recently, I am also pleased to have announced the proposed acquisition of Texas Instruments' wafer fabrication facility and operation located in Greenock, Scotland or GFAB. This facility is about 320,000 square foot and has a potential monthly capacity of approximately 256,000 8-inch equivalent layers. Also as part of the transition, Diodes and TI will enter into a multi-year wafer supply agreement, in which Diodes will continue to manufacture TI's analog products from GFAB as TI transfers those products into its other wafer fabs. This proposed acquisition aligns well with our strategic plan for significant revenue and profit dollar growth over the next several years and offers Diodes an additional wafer fab capacity to support our product growth, in particularly our automotive expansion initiatives. It also provides excellent engineering skills and wafer fab know-how to support our technical and operational performance expectations. Further this transaction meets our criteria for strategic acquisitions, and we expect it to be immediately accretive.

The closing of the transaction is subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to be completed at the end of the first quarter of 2019. And we look forward to 2019, we expect to continue gaining market share and achieve growth rates that exceed our served available markets, while prioritizing higher-margin opportunities across automotive, industrial and our Pericom products. Underpinning our anticipated growth and serving as a key theme for Diodes in the coming year are content gains across connected cars, high-end servers and storage, 5G and IoT. We are well positioned both operationally and financially to drive increasing profits and cash flow on incremental revenue growth and expect to once again reach new records across our business in 2019.

With that, let me now turn the call over to Rick to discuss our first quarter financial results and our first quarter 2019 guidance in more detail.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Thanks, Dr. Lu and, good afternoon everyone. As part of my financial review today, I will focus my comments on the sequential change for the fourth quarter as well as select full year results and would refer you to our press release for a more detailed review of our results as well as the year-over-year and full-year comparisons.

Revenue for the fourth quarter 2018 was $314.4 million, a 2% decrease from the $320.9 million in the third quarter 2018. This 2% sequential decrease is significantly below our normal seasonality. The full year 2018 revenue was a record $1.2 billion, an increase of 15.2% over $1.05 billion in 2017 and well over the growth of our served markets. Gross profit for the fourth quarter was $114.2 million or 36.3% of revenue compared to $115.2 million or 35.9% of revenue in the third quarter of 2018. The sequential increase in gross margin was primarily due to improved product mix as well as the continued 8-inch ramp at our Shanghai fabrication facility, SFAB 2. For the full year, gross profit increased 22% to a record $435.3 million or 35.9% of revenue as compared to $356.8 million or 33.8% of revenue in the prior year.

GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter 2018 was $7.3 million or 22.4% of revenue and $65.8 million or 20.9% of revenue on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes $4.5 million of amortization of acquisition-related intangible asset expenses. This compares with GAAP operating expenses in the third quarter 2018 of $69.4 million or 21.6% of revenue and $65 million or 23% of revenue on a non-GAAP basis.

Total other expenses, amounted to approximately $1 million for the quarter, including $2.3 million of interest expense income. Income before taxes and noncontrolling interest in the fourth quarter 2018 amounted to $42.8 million compared to (technical difficulty) quarter 2018.

Turning to income taxes. Our effective income tax rates for the fourth quarter and full year 2018 were approximately 29.9% and 29.7% respectively. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter 2018 was $29.5 million or $0.58 per diluted share compared to $30.9 or $0.61 per diluted share in the third quarter 2018. The share count used to compute GAAP diluted EPS for the fourth quarter 2018 this was 50.9 million shares. GAAP net income (ph) for the full year was a record $104 million or $2.04 per diluted share compared with a GAAP net loss for the full year 2017 of $1.8 million or a loss of $0.04 per share, which included the impact of the 2017 tax reform.

Fourth quarter 2018 non-GAAP adjusted net income was $33.2 million or $0.65 is per diluted share, which excluded net of tax $3.7 million of non-cash acquisition-related intangible asset amortization costs. This compares to non-GAAP adjusted net income of $34.5 million or $0.68 per diluted share in the third quarter 2018.

Non-GAAP adjusted net income for the full year 2018 increased 75% to a record $121.3 million or $2.38 per diluted share compared to $69.1 million or $1.37 per diluted share in 2017. We have included in our earnings release a reconciliation of GAAP net income to non-GAAP adjusted net income, which provides additional details.

EBITDA for the fourth quarter 2018 was $70.5 million or 22.4% of revenue compared with $72 million or 22.4% of revenue in the third quarter 2018. For the full year 2018, EBITDA improved 55% to a record $261.1 million or 21.5% of revenue compared with $168.2 million or 16% of revenue in 2017. We have included in our earnings release a reconciliation of GAAP net income to EBITDA, which provides additional details. Cash flow generated from operations was $61.6 million for the fourth quarter 2018 and $185.6 million for the full year. Free cash flow was $46.3 million for the fourth quarter, which included $15.3 million of capital expenditures and $98.1 million for the full year, which included $87.5 million of capital expenditures.

Net cash flow in the fourth quarter was a positive $90.7 million including $47.4 million of additional long-term debt to fund a previously committed shareholder equity increase in the Company's Chengdu corporate entity. Net cash flow for the full year was a positive $36.6 million including the paydown of approximately $56.8 million of long-term debt.

Turning to the balance sheet, at the end of the fourth quarter cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments totaled approximately $248.6 million. Working capital was $480.8 million and long-term debt including the current portion was $213.8 million. At the end of the fourth quarter, inventory decreased approximately $3.7 million from the third quarter 2018 to approximately $215 million. The decrease in inventory reflects a $2.8 million decrease in finished goods, a $2.6 million decrease in raw materials, and a $1.7 million increase in work in process. This is the third consecutive quarter of finished goods inventory decreases reflecting our focus on reducing finished goods inventory. Finished goods inventory days were 28 in the quarter compared to 30 in the third quarter of 2018. Total inventory days were 100 in the quarter compared to 99 in the third quarter of 2018.

Capital expenditures on a cash basis for the fourth quarter were $15.3 million or 4.9% of revenue and $87.5 million or 7.2% of revenue for the full year. We expect CapEx for the full year 2019 to remain within our target model of 5% to 9% of revenue.

Now turning to our outlook. We expect revenue in the first quarter of 2019 to be approximately $302 million plus or minus 2.5%. At the midpoint, this represents growth of 10% over the prior year period and down approximately 4% sequentially, which is slightly better than typical seasonality. We expect GAAP gross margin to be 36% plus or minus 1%, non-GAAP operating expenses, which are GAAP operating expenses adjusted for amortization of acquisition related intangible assets, are expected to be approximately 21.5% of revenue, plus or minus 1%. We expect interest expense to be approximately $2 million.

Our income tax rate is expected to be 25% plus or minus 3% and shares used to calculate diluted EPS for the first quarter are anticipated to be approximately $51.2 million. Please note that purchase accounting adjustments of $3.7 million after-tax for Pericom and previous acquisitions are not included in these non-GAAP estimates.

That said, I will now turn the call over to Emily Yang.

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Thank you, Rick and afternoon. Looking more closely at fourth quarter revenues, distributor POP was down by 6% and POS decreased 9.8% sequentially, but yet POS was up 16% year-over-year. Outside of Asia, POS remained strong. Channel inventory increased 5.6% sequentially driven primarily by Asia region in preparation for the pre-Chinese New Year payout. As is typical, at this time of year, outside of Asia,channel inventory was flat.

Looking at global sales in the fourth quarter, Asia represented 79% of the revenue, Europe 10%, and North America 11%. In terms of our end markets, industrial was once again our largest representative end market at 25% of revenue, consumer represented 24%, communication 24%, computing 18% and automotive 9% of revenue.

Starting with the automotive market, growth continues to be strong, especially in Asia, with 2018 revenue increasing almost 38% over 2017 to 9% of total revenue. Diodes continued to secure new designs wins across multiple products, including MOSFETs, brushless DC motor, electric power steering, water pumps, power windows, electric horn, infotainment, battery management and advanced drivers assistance. In addition USB power delivery has been added to automobiles, which is driving design wins of our solution in infotainment and mobile wire and wireless charging applications.

Additionally, our diodes and rectifier product has seen solid momentum in the automotive space, driven by the need for a robot electric discharge protection in the connected cars. We also saw strong demand for daytime running light and body control modules, as we continued to introduce new products like bipolar junction transistors and LED linear controllers.

In the industrial market, we also achieved strong full-year growth of more than 29%, accounting to approximately 25% of total revenue. During the quarter, we secured multiple new design wins for our normal density trench MOSFET technology, data line platform, hall sensors, Schottky, SBR and BJT products for our broad range of applications, including brushless DC motors, LED lighting, DC fan, power tools and e-lock applications. We also continued to see strong demand for our SASP products, in fact with the record adoption of high-speed interfaces across multiple end application in the IoT industry.

ESP protection is becoming more important for (inaudible). Diodes SBR, and Schottky product remained strong in the DC fan and lighting market, where we offer products suitable for high-temperature environments. We also saw strong momentum for our recently introduced gate drivers, designed into battery test systems, regulators into DC fans, as well as transistors and synchronized controllers into power applications. In our consumer end market, 2018 revenue grew 10% over 2017, as we continued to achieve strong momentum across a wide variety of applications, such as low power USB Type C charging and power delivery, wireless power charging, augmented reality, panels, earphones, wearables, portable devices, OLED displays, smart speakers, gaming, Bluetooth as well as Wi-Fi trackers.

In addition USB Type C is gaining market traction and expanding its footprint to new end products, such as set-top boxes as well as Type C adapters to convert the Type C back to Type A for the existing installed base. Our wide signal switching and smart (ph) portfolio covers all this applications need. Additionally, our audio products are achieving significant revenue increases, driven by the high demand for our audio alarming features in the Bluetooth and WiFi tracker applications.

We also secured key design wins for our gate drivers and synchronous controllers for home appliance applications such as air conditioner, fans and refrigerators. In communications Diodes has been actively engaged in this market with our comprehensive smart footprint, DFM and CFP MOSFET portfolio and have been achieving design wins and revenue growth. We also continued to expand our portfolio of battery protection MOSFET to address this market and also see strong demands for LDOs and hall sensors in smart phones to help reduce power consumption and increasing battery life. Our design win activity also continued for AC/DC charging solutions of smartphones, chargers and adapters. Also within communications, mega data center applications are driving the 100 gig and 400 gig optical transistor market to address the bandwidth needs of data communications. High speed transceivers require high performance and low jitter operators as our timing reference. Diodes product portfolio of small form factor and ultra low jitter XO products position us well in this growing market.

Further, we continue to see strong demand for our VP signal switches, along with strong demand for applications for ultrafast recovery rectifier in the low profile package in the mobile phones, play stations, wireless charging applications.

Also within communication, we're also seeing very strong design win activities in 5G applications with a wide range of Pericom products, including PCIe Packet Switches, Clock IC, crystal and crystal oscillators, level shifters and high speed MOSFETs and with Diodes products including low noise LDOs, buck converters and MOSFETs.

5G is only in the beginning stage of the infrastructure build-out and as Dr. Lu mentioned, we see this area as a key growth opportunity for Diodes in 2019 and beyond. In computing, during the quarter, we secured new design wins for PCIe gen 4 product from the Pericom product line, including (inaudible) drives an active mark in the gaming and server applications. We also saw significant opportunities for USB Type C and USB 3.1 drivers in tablet and PC applications. In fact, USB Type C connectors continued to gain market traction as new applications are adapting USB Type C connector options. For example, the latest docking station for commercial mobiles (ph), supporting USB Type C will require USB and DisplayPort (inaudible). Diodes solutions supporting USB Type C alternative model for signal switching, as signal integrity continued to expand our design win activity in tablet, local and docking station applications. Hall sensors are also gaining traction in the local and tablet applications by reducing power consumption, while maintaining reliable performance. Additionally, our broad product portfolio of Schottky rectifier technology continues to win design wins in applications such as USB power delivery and ATX power supply.

In summary, we are very pleased with the achievement of record annual results across our business driven by our past design win momentum, expanded product offerings and increased market share and contact with (ph) customers. Additionally, our continued focus on automotive industrial and our Pericom products have further contributed to our growth while also offering additional higher margin opportunities across a wide variety of applications. We expect this category (ph) will continue driving profitability growth and cash flow for Diodes in the years to come.

With that, we'll now open the floor to questions. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Gary Mobley of Benchmark. Your line is open.

Gary Mobley -- The Benchmark Company -- Analyst

Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I want to start with a question or a clarification for you Rick. You mentioned in your prepared remarks Q1 revenue guidance of $302 million and your press release it reads $305 million. So, I'm just hoping to at this point exactly what it is?

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Well, it's $302 million.

Gary Mobley -- The Benchmark Company -- Analyst

$302 million. Okay. So still prompts my second question, down 4% sequentially is better than seasonal, nobody in the industry is doing better than seasonal in the first quarter. So, why go on a limb with that sort of guidance and it's truly backed by demand indicators and whatnot, could you give us a sense of how you guys are faring so much better than the industry right now?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. I think, we're always talking about the seasonality, somewhere around 9%, down 5% to 10%. But similar to last year we do see a pretty strong demand for our product especially winning from content increase. I think during the speech, you can see we are gaining more shares, not just the more new product, but we do actually gain more shares from the content increase. So even when we see some of the application to slowdown in 1Q, but due to the content increase, our affect by seasonality reduced.

Gary Mobley -- The Benchmark Company -- Analyst

Okay. I did have a follow-up question about your GFAB acquisition. So obviously, it doesn't -- perhaps it doesn't go with TI strategy and perhaps this is the reason they're willing to sell it. So I'm just wondering what the arbitrage is that you're betting on here, what don't they see in this facility that is going to benefit you strategically or financially?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I don't want to speak for them, but obviously they are expanding their 12-inch fab and they are moving to the smaller geometry. But Diodes since we are -- we do have a need for more capacity for 6-inch, but especially, we really don't have enough capacity for our 8-inch products, so this is just the right match between the two companies and we moved the product portfolio into the 8-inch. It really suits us from the usage point of view. I think during his speech you can see we do build in significant revenue and a profit (inaudible) increase in the futures and GFAB will be able to provide us the people, the skill, the capacity and all those is going to be very positive adder to Diodes' operations.

Gary Mobley -- The Benchmark Company -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you everyone.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Shawn Harrison of Longbow Research. Your line is open.

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Hi everybody. Congratulations on the strong results and guidance.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Shawn.

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Dr. Lu it didn't say in the press release for the TI facility that you're acquiring the purchase price. Is that something you can provide to us? I am just trying to figure out, did you pay a lot to get the accretion. I know, you usually like a bargain.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Number one, we do have agreement with TI. The detail of the purchasing cannot be disclosed, OK, so -- but two things I do can able to tell you. One is it meet by M&A criteria, remember one of the key M&A criteria is it need to be accretive within one year and virtually this acquisition it provide immediately a cushion in acquisitions. So now that's what I really pay attention. Number two, we already said this is insignificant on the material.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Yeah, it's immaterial.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Immaterial.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

So from both TI and Diodes' perspective, we're classifying this as immaterial and therefore the contracts and the details of the negotiation will not be disclosed.

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Gotcha. That's helpful enough. On your current 8-inch capacity, the SFAB 2 where you at right now in terms of production versus kind of the target level, which is what 12,000 wafers a month or something like that?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, if you remember it starts from beginning of last year or actually we start working on 8-inch capacity in SFAB 2 since 2017, the first production is in March of 2018 and we are able to ramp it up to about 9,000 wafer a month by December 2018. And we are hoping, we start to continue to ramp it. The maximum capacity in SFAB 2 is only 12,000 a month, 8-inch capacity. And so when we are talking about this, this 8-inch capacity is for MOSFET, for SBR, so typically somewhere around probably five, six layers per wafers. Okay, so 256,000 wafer, 8-inch equivalent wafer layers. It's a good addition to our discrete especially MOSFET and SBR capacity increase.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

So in the fourth quarter the goal is to get to between 8,000 and 9,000 and that's actually where we got to in SFAB 2.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Okay. And then how quickly will you be able to put your customer base into that fab and have it qualified? Is it within the first half of this calendar year?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

No, no way, first we need to the develop the process, which may not be taking that long, but if you remember our SFAB 2 we actually take one whole year of 2017 to move (inaudible) process and virtually on this site, equipments are already there and we probably need like six months to implement the process. Then it probably take another three months to do qualification, to do this one and so we'll put it up a product notice to the customer and they say probably currently I expect maybe end of the year, we will start to notify our customer getting the sample. But to officially ramp the customer need approval and all these ones. So it will probably take a while and that's why it's important for us to continue supporting TI, TI's need and keep the fab loaded, OK. Then the time when TI demand goes down, our demand will go up and is able to give us accretive immediately and continue.

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Right. So for the customer qualification, it really depends, I would say range probably from one quarter to three to four quarters, depends on the customer. So it's going to take some time.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and especially these fab we expect to support automotive and industrial and the design of that ramp for our -- of the acceptance for the customer to agree to convert, it take a while, OK. And some of the automotive require 1 year or 1.5 year. And so it's really very critical for us to be able to continue support TI, while we take time to ranking our product so we don't want to run into a problem of the capacity is empty or capacity is wasted.

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Gotcha. Thanks so much.

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Thank you.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tristan Gerra of Baird. Your line is open.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. A follow-up question on this fab from TI. What's the margin profile for this foundry business that you're offering to them? Is that below corporate average?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

No, I cannot -- Tristan, like I said, we cannot disclose and we have a agreement with TI. The detail of the operation cannot disclose, but I'm going to emphasize one more time it's accretive immediately, OK.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Okay. And then once you get full access to that fab presumably in a few years, what percentage increase does that bring relative to your current total production today? How much incremental capacity percentage wise is this fab going to give you once you have full access in a few years?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

This -- I cannot -- like I said, I cannot really give too much of detail, but I can tell you now today the 8-inch is almost loaded -- fully loaded, OK and, some of the 6-inch, it probably is not fully loaded. But the key thing is, we do not have with agreement, we are able to accretive immediately. Therefore any additional will be the gain, any additional loading from Diodes, will be the gain. Now, I probably cannot tell you how much gain, because then we have disclosed too much of the detail, but loading from Diodes, we'll be able to show more profit, that's for sure. Right.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Yes, so, Tristan, one thing we can't disclose and -- that GFAB currently has over 8,000 wafers per month of 8-inch capacity, plus approximately 13,000 wafers per month of 6-inch capacity. And if you go through that whole process, that's what we put in the press release, which -- that the total capacity is approximately 256,000 8-inch equivalent layers per month. Okay.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

And I wanted to mention, when we talk about 8,000 wafer, that usually traditional CMOS wafer, like 20 layers. But for Diodes product, especially for MOSFET, for the SBR it's not the same number of layers. That's why instead of using wafer, 8,000 wafer, are using total 260 layers a month and reason is the product is different and typically CMOS analog product number of layers is much higher. In average probably 18 to 20 layers and our discrete which is much, much less. And that's why a easier way to use is using the layer.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Okay. That's useful. And then a quick follow-up on the earlier question. Is it too early or are you able to see initial order activity now that the Chinese New Year is over and specifically what type of back-end capacity do you have? Last year you had more labor coming back from the Chinese New Year, that you expected and therefore you had probably a little bit more capacity than you expected. How is that shaping up call it just the demand basically starting this week with post Chinese New Year?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Tristan, you can see we give the guidance today that and the Chinese New Year, actually just over a couple of days ago. And so we do already know how many people come back during the Chinese, which means last week, the Chinese New Year is last week and New Year although is already over Sunday, last Sunday. So we give the guidance and that guidance is already in consideration of the capacity, the supporting. And so I think, that guidance reflect the people performance and the people return from the Chinese New Year. My point is it's not going to be a big surprise. anymore.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Edgar Roesch of Sidoti. Your line is open.

Edgar Roesch -- Sidoti & Company -- Analyst

Yeah, congratulations on finishing up the terrific year, (multiple speakers) was great. And I wanted to ask you a little bit on the automotive side. Certainly some premium growth being seen in newer systems, whether it's ADAS or connected driving application, I would assume that more traditional automotive systems, like power steering, windows and the like would be a good bit slower, but could you speak about how the growth trended throughout 2018 and what you're seeing going into the first quarter here?

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Right. So this is Emily, maybe let me address that question, right. So even with some of the traditional applications that you mentioned, like the power steering, the windows and stuff like that we also see a lot of change over there implemented, brushless DC motor. And with this change that which we've been emphasizing for the last few quarters, we start seeing a lot of content improvements, especially on the Diodes side. So that's really what we're seeing. So now, switching from the traditional to the newer models even it's the same function, but it really enrich a lot of features and functionality, kind of really helping the contact expansion that we've been talking about.

Edgar Roesch -- Sidoti & Company -- Analyst

Okay, terrific. Thanks for that. And then Dr. Lu, just as you continue to mix up in the more complex devices, do you see that 7% R&D budget being adequate, let's say a couple of years into the future or would we expect that to maybe grow a little faster than revenue at some point?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

You'd remember when I go through talking about 2025, we are hoping to driving the GP up to 40% and revenue $2.5 billion, you remember that is the same we talking about. During that time I do intend to increase our model of R&D to 6% and probably you probably say, oh, 1% more, but don't forget 1% is the 20% of the total R&D numbers, OK. And number two -- number two is we had a growth on both R&D -- on both discrete and analog. So discrete, the R&D will keep the same as the revenue growth and so therefore, I don't see a need of significant increase of R&D from our business model. And I think 6%...

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

7%.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

7%, I am sorry.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

7%.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

7%. Yeah, from 5% to 7%. So it's a good increase and I think that the key thing really is efficiency of using the R&D money, OK. And do -- I have been driving how to more effectively to using R&D money and so far, Diodes is able to efficiently increase -- efficient control or using our R&D money. And other thing you that we purchased Pericom and Pericom product, their IC product is in the 20% -- in 50%, 60% GP and that if you took a Pericom, I am talking about the IC business, Pericom IC, no in cooling frequency or control product. And in Emily's speech you already know our Pericom actually grow 24% of -- the IC -- Pericom IC increased 24% last year. So we are not increasing there the R&D money. We keep about the same and you can see that even with that we are able to grow 24% last year. So to answer your question, I think we are very well to your utilize our R&D money.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Yes, thank you for that. And then one last one. I understand that the additional Chengdu investment was kind of prescribed in the agreement. Is it geared toward eventually expansion of any kind or is that just change in equity ownership structure?

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

He is talking about the Chengdu equity investment that we talked about in the fourth quarter.

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Whether -- what's that going to be spent on in the future, expansion or?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Oh, OK, that we do -- there were two items, one is constantly CapEx increase to support our need for the capacity expansion. Now, we still continue. Another big money is the building. If you would remember at the beginning when we built Chengdu phase one, we build up one manufacturing building, one R&D building and one operating building. And we kind of using up all the majority of our manufacturing building. So, we do plan to go to next phase which is building another five floor of the manufacturing floor and that is the one going to consume a big money. And I'm just think -- try to see we can fully use our space and see did they add a little bit on our building expansions. So it's still ongoing and when we have a need we will start building up the next manufacturing building.

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Thanks for that and have a good evening. Thanks.

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Dr. Lu for any closing remarks. Dr. Lu?

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for your participation on today's call. We're looking forward to providing another update on our business next quarter. Operator, you may now disconnect.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

Duration: 51 minutes

Call participants:

Leanne K. Sievers -- President, Investor Relations

Keh-Shew Lu -- Director, President and Chief Executive Officer

Richard D. White -- Chief Financial Officer and Secretary

Emily Yang -- Vice President, Worldwide Sales and Marketing

Gary Mobley -- The Benchmark Company -- Analyst

Shawn Harrison -- Longbow Research -- Analyst

Tristan Gerra -- Baird -- Analyst

Edgar Roesch -- Sidoti & Company -- Analyst

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