Top Stocks For 2014, Best Stocks To Buy 2014: 2014

12/31/2014

Hennessy Japan Fund Comments on Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd.

Among the strongest performing stocks in the Fund during the period were … and Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. (TSE:7453), the operator of the MUJI brand retail chain store. Finally, shares of Ryohin Keikaku Co., Ltd. surged 18% due to the solid earnings announcement for its fiscal year ended February 28, 2014, and the upbeat guidance for the new fiscal year. The Fund continues to hold all of these positions.

From Hennessy Japan Fund's Semi-Annual Report April 30, 2014.

Also check out: Hennessy Japan Fund Undervalued Stocks Hennessy Japan Fund Top Growth Companies Hennessy Japan Fund High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Hennessy Japan Fund keeps buying

Currently 0.00/512345

Rating: 0.0/5 (0 votes)

Subscribe via Email RSS Feeds

Subscribe RSS Comments Please leave your comment:
More GuruFocus Links

Latest Guru Picks	Value Strategies
Warren Buffett Portfolio	Ben Graham Net-Net
Real Time Picks	Buffett-Munger Screener
Aggregated Portfolio	Undervalued Predictable
ETFs, Options	Low P/S Companies
Insider Trends	10-Year Financials
52-Week Lows	Interactive Charts
Model Portfolios	DCF Calculator
RSS Feed	Monthly Newsletters
The All-In-One Screener	Portfolio Tracking Tool

Jobs Data, GM Drama, ECB Rates, and Last Week's Stock Market Winners and Losers

Before you start dropping the big bucks on Cali Chrome this weekend, check out what sent stocks to fresh highs this past week. The top headline worth writing home to Mom about was the 217,000 new jobs added in May -- which finally brings total payrolls up to the level where they were before the financial crisis. That solid number helped send the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) (DJINDICES: ^DJI  ) up 88 points Friday. Mazel Tov. 1. The stock market winner ... It's wedding season -- and that means a good amount of open bars that will be featuring young people ordering uncreative "Jack and Cokes." That's more good news for Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF-B  ) (NYSE: BF-B  ) (NYSE: BF-B  ) , a big-time liquor distributor.

Brown-Forman was on investors' top shelves last week after an earnings report worth pouring some Scotch to -- the company announced that net sales globally rose 6% over last year. And it's Jack Daniels that's driving the push as sales of the whiskey increased 8% across planet earth.

It's not just that America has refound its taste for whiskey on the heels of the craft brew trend. Its flavored whiskeys, in particular, that are what BF wants to capitalize on. BF's "Tennessee Honey" brand of Jack doubled sales in its first year, with total sales rising 36% in the last year. Next, BF plans to introduced "Tennessee Fire" to add a cinnamon spice to its flavored whiskey lineup (and compete with Fireball Whisky).
2. ... And the stock market loser We used to love munching Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD  ) (NYSE: KKD  ) (NYSE: KKD  ) doughnuts after Pee-Wee hockey games -- but ever since the company over-expanded in the early 2000s and fell in 2004, the stock has been trying to claw its way back.

And while 2013 was solid for the glazed-doughnut king, the first quarter of 2014 wasn't as tasty. The company reported earnings last week, indicating an unimpressive $121.6 million in revenue for the first three months of the year -- less than 1% more in revenue during the first quarter of last year.

Like the big-box retailers Target and Wal-Mart, Krispy Kreme execs are taking the easy way out -- they're blaming winter weather. But the notable issue for investors was that sales declined globally by 4.5%. And while sales at the company's franchises rose by 4.5% since last year, sales at company-owned stores dropped 1.5%, and as a result, Krispy Kreme lowered its sales projections for the rest of the year.
3. GM announced firings for recall drama
Tires and heads are rolling at General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) , where the recently anointed CEO blamed predecessors for the company's recent recall drama. Investors continue to punish the stock, as GM admitted it covered up the mechanical glitch nearly a decade ago, resulting in over a dozen road deaths. Now GM's fired many of those responsible and plans to refocus on building multiple lines of uninspiring-looking cars.

4. The ECB dropped interest rates to negative levels How low can you go? Apparently pretty low if you're in Europe. The European Central Bank announced that it's lowering interest rates to negative levels -- instead of paying interest to banks holding cash, it's going to start charging them if they don't put the money to work jump-starting European economies struggling with unemployment. Wall Street applauded the stimulus news with big gains and croissant-binging competitions. As originally published on MarketSnacks.com

Your credit card may soon be completely worthless
The plastic in your wallet is about to go the way of the typewriter, the VCR, and the 8-track tape player. When it does, a handful of investors could stand to get very rich. You can join them -- but you must act now. An eye-opening new presentation reveals the full story on why your credit card is about to be worthless -- and highlights one little-known company sitting at the epicenter of an earth-shaking movement that could hand early investors the kind of profits we haven't seen since the dot-com days. Click here to watch this stunning video.

12/30/2014

Dr. Dre may be "first billionaire in hip-hop"

The in-studio video posted Thursday on actor Tyrese Gibson's Facebook page is raucous and choppy, a party scene with a mix of explicit language, big laughs and nimble dance moves.

But its message is unmistakable, delivered by Dr. Dre himself: "The first billionaire in hip-hop, right here from the (expletive deleted) West Coast."

With that line, spoken just over camera-wielding Gibson's right shoulder, Dr. Dre appeared to both confirm rumors of Apple's imminent acquisition of Beats Electronics and announce a landmark moment in hip-hop history.

Will Dre, who rose to prominence in the 1980s as a fierce Los Angeles-based rapper with the controversial group N.W.A, indeed become the street-bred genre's first billionaire? Odds are yes.

Although his stake in the company that bears his name has never been made public, "most feel he's got between 20% and 25% of it," says Chuck Creekmur, CEO AllHipHip.com. "That would mean he'd get there first, before Diddy and Jay-Z."

Dre ranked second in Forbes magazine's most recent list of top-earning rappers, at $550 million. P. Diddy was first with $700 million and Jay-Z third at $520. If the Apple purchase price of $3.2 billion for Beats' suite of headphones and electronics goods as well as its recently launched streaming music service proves accurate, that could put Dre's stake of Beats at around $800 million.

To see a guy many of us grew up with make it this big is really going to inspire others.

Chuck Creekmur, CEO AllHipHop.com

Dre breaking that billion-dollar barrier will have a huge impact on the hip-hop community, says Creekmur.

"Hip-hop is a very aspirational culture, and many of the people in it certainly aspire to become as affluent as the American dream says you can be, even though it's eluded most of us," he says. "Most of the people in hip-hop are first generation business people, so to see a guy many of us grew up with make it this big is really going to inspire others to push to do the same."

Making the mome! nt even more powerful is the fact that, when compared to Diddy and Jay-Z, Dre has long preferred to stay in the background, cultivating not so much a celebrity vibe as a reputation for being among one of the best producers in the music business with a set of ears second to none.

In fact, Creekmur says the video with Gibson, which was soon pulled off the actor's Facebook page, represents "a real exception to his normal reclusive M.O.," perhaps attributable, per Gibson's crack on the 80-second clip, to the group having consumed a few beers.

For many in the hip-hop community, Dre will first and foremost be synonymous with crushing beats and not business deals.

"Regardless of the success of this deal, the legacy Dre has built as a musician and producer will never be undercut," says Jermaine Hall, editor of Vibe magazine. "It's like Magic Johnson. He may have gone on to be a great businessman, but he'll always be the face of the Lakers franchise."

Hall says Dre's magic lies in having "ears that tell him exactly where the bass and treble should be at" for a given song, ears that have also been used to tune the Beats line of headphones with a decidedly bass-heavy bent.

"You combine that with the savvy and marketing of (Beats' other founding force, producer) Jimmy Iovine and you were bound to get a winner," says Hall, who adds that Apple would be making a mistake if it rebranded its Beats purchase. Beats accounts for around two-thirds of the premium headphone market, where products sell for anywhere from $200 to $400 a pair.

In the end, the deal may have cultural repercussions that equal its fiscal ones.

"When you step back, for someone from the hip-hop culture to reach the billion-dollar mark is pretty incredible," says Hall. "And in many ways, Dre getting there first before those other two guys is the better story. He's the common man behind the scenes, and he won."

12/29/2014

Gilead Sciences, Inc. Can't Do It Alone

For hepatitis C, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD ) has done a very nice job developing a cocktail drug (with help from its acquisition of Pharmasset). Gilead's Harvoni can cure almost all hepatitis C patients without the need for other medications.

For HIV, however, it's needed a little help.

On Monday, Gilead Sciences announced an expanded agreement with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ ) to develop two different of cocktail pills to treat HIV. One drug will combine Gilead's tenofovir alafenamide, commonly called TAF, and Emtriva with Johnson & Johnson's Edurant. The other combines Gilead's TAF, Emtriva, and Tybost, along with Janssen's Prezista.

Cocktail pills help eliminate the need for multiple pills. Source: The Motley Fool

The companies already developed a similar cocktail called Complera, which is marketed as Eviplera in the European Union. The drug is a combination of Gilead's Viread along with Emtriva and Edurant.

Gilead is on a quest to swap out Viread for TAF in its medications, because TAF has a longer patent life than Viread. The company also claims that the newer drug is safer, reducing the likelihood of kidney failure and decreases in bone mineral density.

The TAF/Emtriva/Edurant combination is just Complera with TAF instead of Viread, so it should work as well. Gilead will start clinical trials for the new combination shortly, and will be responsible for getting the drug approved and manufacturing and selling the drug in most counties. Johnson & Johnson will distribute the drug in approximately 17 markets, presumably ones where the larger Johnson & Johnson has a presence but Gilead doesn't.

Development of the other drug combination, TAF/Emtriva/Tybost/Prezista, will be taken over by Johnson & Johnson. Under a previous agreement between the companies, Gilead was working on the four-drug combination, which appears to work as well as Viread/Emtriva/Tybost/Prezista in a phase 2 trial.

Johnson & Johnson has had a phase 3 trial listed in ClinicalTrials.gov since October, so it appears this switch in responsibility has been in the works for awhile and Johnson & Johnson is ready to hit the ground running. The change seems like a good idea, since Johnson & Johnson is responsible for a separate pill that just contains Tybost and Prezista, which it submitted to the FDA in April.

HIV vs. Hep C
Obviously every company would like to keep all of the revenue from its drugs. But sharing works better in HIV than it does for treating hepatitis C, for a couple of reasons.

First, Gilead stumbled on an amazing combination of just two drugs that can cure hepatitis C; most HIV patients are taking three or more medications to keep their infection at bay. It's a lot easier to develop or make acquisitions to get a two-drug combination than one that requires three or four. Gilead's four-drug Stribild is wholly owned, but that's an exception in the HIV space.

Hepatitis C drugs are also a cure, which puts pressure to capture as much revenue as quickly as possible. Except for the rare failure or reinfection, you only get one shot at treating a patient. Capturing all of the revenue is important since the size of the market is in decline as patients are treated.

HIV patients, on the other hand, will be taking drugs for the rest of their lives. Patients become resistant to medications and have to be switched to different combinations. There are also tolerability issues that can cause patients to switch. Having your hand in as many drugs on the market as possible is a good strategy, even if the company isn't capturing the full value of that patient.

1 great healthcare stock to buy for 2015 and beyond
Healthcare stocks soared in 2014, and 2015 is shaping up to be another great year for stocks. But if you want to make sure you're buying one of the best healthcare stocks, you need to know where to start. That's why The Motley Fool's chief investment officer just published a brand-new research report that reveals his top stock for the year ahead. To get the full story on this year's stock -- completely free -- simply click here.

Why Seniors Should Declutter -- and How to Easily Do So

Annapolis, Maryland, United States.Busy, Messy, Full, People, Chaos, Home Interior, Box, Technology, Horizontal, Indoors, 60-6 Getty Images There often comes a time when you have to part with some of your stuff. OK, a whole lot of it. Seniors, especially, have four compelling reasons to pare back possessions. 1. You Intend to Grow Old in Your Home Most people ages 50 and older want to age in place, AARP pollsters recently found. Adults ages 65 and older are even more likely (87 percent) to say they want to age in their current home or community than those ages 50 to 64 (71 percent). AARP's Home Fit guide tells how to prepare a home for aging in place. Decluttering and organizing your belongings while you are young enough to tackle the job allows you to: Access what you want easily. Enjoy memories stored in mementos, photos, letters, videos and other treasures you've been saving. Reorganize possessions for safe reach. Maneuver more easily through the home in case you become disabled. 2. You May Be Headed for Trouble Decluttering can help head off these problems that often force elders from their homes: Devastating falls. Serious falls can permanently reduce a senior's mobility and freedom. Reducing clutter opens up space and could reduce the possibility of tripping and hurting yourself. Hoarding. Hoarding entails "difficulty in discarding current possessions, urges to save items, and excessive clutter in the home," according to Psychiatric Times. Hoarding can be an especially difficult problem for older people living alone. 3. You Want to Leave Heirs a Lighter Load Estate planning, making a will and a trust and keeping them updated, is a kindness to your heirs. Likewise, decluttering now protects your loved ones from inheriting the burden of a home full of stuff. 4. You're Downsizing You may find, especially after children are grown, that you're weary of the cost and maintenance of the family home, and you'd rather move in with adult children or downsize to a smaller place. The problem: you can't cram everything you own into your new home. Get Started Paring back a lifetime's worth of possessions can feel overwhelming. Some alternative ways of thinking about the problem can help. There is, after all, no one way to declutter. Unless there's a deadline (you've sold your home, for instance), think of decluttering as a new habit rather than a mountainous job.

12/28/2014

Retailers or Retail ETFs: Buy, Hold or Short? XRT, RTH & RETL

Given that retailers had a mixed holiday season while retail ETFs like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT), Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: RTH) and Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares (NYSEARCA: RETL) have been making declines on their technical charts, should you be buying, holding or folding (as in shorting) retail stocks or ETFs? To begin with, I should mention that we recently started shorting SPDR S&P Retail ETF in our SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) portfolio mainly for technical (as you will see later in the charts) rather than fundamental reasons as we think retail stocks (and hence retail ETFs) have gotten a little ahead of themselves.

However and for the bearish investors or traders among us, consider the fact that last month, only 74,000 jobs were added for the lowest increase since January 2011 and of those new jobs, 55,000 were added in the retail sector for their holidays (and no doubt many have already received their pink slips). But we need to add a minimum of 127,000 jobs per month just to keep up with annual population growth.

Now consider a recent observation made by money manager David John Marotta in a blog post addressed to investors using Bureau of Labor Statistics' data on the current labor force participation rate, which is about 62.8%:

Based on that figure, he concluded that the unemployment rate in its truest definition is actually 37.2%. Of course, the Drudge Report and the Washington Examiner ran with the 37.2% unemployment story while Marotta had been quick to point out that:

This number obviously includes some people who are not or never plan to seek employment. But it does describe how many people are not able to, do not want to or cannot find a way to work. Policies that remove the barriers to employment, thus decreasing this number, are obviously beneficial.

I should mention that the U-6 unemployment rate, which is considered to be the government's broader measure of actual unemployment in the US, will also regularly posts a much higher figure than the "official" unemployment rate and currently stands at 13.1%. But at the end of the day though, it does not matter whether unemployment is 6.7% or 13.1% or 37.2% because a shrinking labor force will tend to put a lid on overall retail sales albeit there are many other factors at play such as consumer confidence, interest rates and the like.

With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the following retail ETFs:

SPDR S&P Retail ETF. Tracking the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF had 102 holdings as of Tuesday allocated in following sectors: Apparel Retail 25.87%, Specialty Stores 16.74%, Automotive Retail (13.93%), Internet Retail (12.32%), Food Retail (8.87%), General Merchandise Stores (6.23%), Department Stores (5.75%), Computer & Electronics Retail (3.33%), Drug Retail (3.16%), Hypermarkets & Super Centers (2.83%) and Catalog Retail (0.97%). Market Vectors Retail ETF. Tracking the Market Vectors US Listed Retail 25 Index, the Market Vectors Retail ETF had 26 holdings as of this week allocated in the following sectors: Consumer Discretionary (54.4%), Consumer Staples (34.5%) and Health Care (11.1%). Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares. Tracking the Russell 1000 Retail Index, Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300% of the performance of Index. At the end of last September, Hypermarkets & Super Centers (19.92%), Home Improvement Retail (19.13%), Internet Retail (15.35%), Apparel Retail (12.39%), General Merchandise Stores (9.58%), Automotive Retail (6.16%), Specialty Stores (5.56%), Department Stores (4.99%), Homefurnishing Retail (2.88%), Computer & Electronics Retail (1.90%), Catalog Retail (1.46%) and Personal Products (0.66%).

Here is a chart showing the long term performance of all three retail ETFs verses the S&P 500 and Dow:

As you can see from the chart, the retail ETFs like SPDR S&P Retail ETF, Market Vectors Retail ETF and Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares have outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Dow since the financial crisis.

However, take a look at the technical charts for all three ETFs:

Notice the double top which looks like an "M" on the chart with the twice touched high being considered a resistance level.

The Bottom Line. If you aren't into options trading, you should probably avoid buying retail ETFs like the SPDR S&P Retail ETF, Market Vectors Retail ETF and Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares right now while keeping eye out for any individual retail stocks that could be bucking the trend. Likewise and if you are into options trading, if might be more profitable to short a few individual retail stocks (especially those with weak guidance or holiday sales) that have ran into trouble rather than the entire sector.

SmallCap Network Elite Opportunity (SCN EO) has an open position in XRT. To find out what other open positions SCN EO currently has, and to learn why so many traders and investors are relying on this premium subscription service, click here to find out more.

Growing government budgets could boost stocks

Better fiscal policy should make global investors happier in 2015. NEW YORK (CNNMoney) After years of cutting spending and hiking taxes in an attempt to shrink ballooning deficits, governments around the world are poised to loosen their belts.

"Globally, we are starting to see a shift from fiscal drag to fiscal stimulus," wrote Jeff Kleintop, the chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in 2015 outlook.

There are signs that the worst could be over even for Europe, where the sovereign debt crisis forced economies to endure a period of fiscal austerity.

And although things in the U.S. never got that bad, forced spending cuts at the state, local and federal level did take a toll on the economy. Even with a newly-elected Republican congress, most strategists don't foresee another government shutdown.

To be sure, fiscal policy isn't the same as monetary policy, which has been a major theme of the markets since the recession. The Federal Reserve and other central banks across the globe have unleashed unprecedented amounts of cash in order to stimulate flagging economies.

Still, Kleintop believes that in 2015 fiscal issues, rather than stimulus programs, will be the focus of investors' attention.

The rosier fiscal picture should be a boon to some of the nations with the biggest financial issues.

Europe and Japan: For example, Kleintop noted that the European Union last month said two of the continent's biggest economies, France and Italy, won't be required to hit previously agreed upon 2015 budget targets through tax increases and spending cuts.

Also in November, Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU's top official, unveiled a 300 billion euro spending plan aimed at jump-starting the European economy.

And in Japan, where the economy slipped into recession last quarter, a planned sales tax increase has been delayed. That's a relief for many investors, since the last boost in sales taxes wiped out second quarter growth as consumers drastically changed their spending patterns.

American fiscal landscape: Despite the increased attention in Washington on shrinking the budget deficit through forced spending cuts and higher taxes, things are starting to look less dire, Kleintop said.

Kleintop pointed out that after being flat for the last five years, federal outlays have actually been rising in recent months. In October, s! pending was up 5.5%, he said.

The newly elected GOP congress could push to reduce spending, but David Lyon, CEO of Main Street Financial, doesn't think they'll make any drastic changes. If anything, they'll be more likely to try to lower taxes, which would be viewed as a positive by investors, he argued.

Furthermore, with elections coming up in 2016, many political analysts believe Republicans and the President may actually work together in an attempt to prove to voters that they can.

US economy grows at fastest pace since 2003

Long-term outlook: While the notion of better fiscal policy heading into the New Year is getting investors excited, it's probably best to take it with a grain of salt.

After all, Europe is far from out of the woods, with recession and deflation threatening many economies. Japan, for its part, still has the highest government debt in the world, and many analysts say the country needs to institute fundamental structural reforms if it wants to break out of its decade-long economic malaise.

Of course, some strategists would argue that looser fiscal policy is simply a series of short-term fixes in a long battle against economic weakness. But Lyon rejects that theme.

"At first glance, it's viewed as kicking the can down the road, but there's a method behind it," he said. "It's focused on putting the consumer in a place where their spending will increase in those parts of the world."

12/27/2014

$5 Million Is the New $1 Million: Can You Make It to 'Wealthy'?

Couple on yacht with wine Getty Images Not so many years ago, having $1 million may have been enough for someone to be labeled wealthy. Not anymore. According to a recent survey of investors by UBS Investor Watch, it now takes $5 million in investable assets (with about 20 percent of that in cash -- or highly liquid investments like CDs or money market funds -- for emergencies) for a person to feel wealthy and enjoy "no financial constraints." But what does it take to actually get there? To achieve a portfolio totaling $5 million may sound like a lofty goal. And it is for the average worker. For example, let's see what would be required for a 22-year-old who starts his career with a $50,000 salary to get to $5 million. That's not so much higher than the average starting salary for a college grad in 2012 -- $44,259 -- but we're about to make few the grandiose assumptions: First, that he saves (and invests) half of his salary and earns 10 percent annual returns on that money. Next to make his chances even better, we'll assume he gets 5 percent annual raises. Here's the projected growth of his portfolio:

Age Portfolio size

30	$303,231
40	$839,823
50	$1,713,875
60	$3,137,613
70	$5,456,733

He wouldn't cross the $5 million threshold until his 69th birthday. Yet how realistic is it to expect above-average annual raises and the ability to save 50 percent of your pre-tax pay? Not very. Let's also look at a woman who starts building her portfolio in her 30s. Maybe she has an advanced degree (from law school, for example) and starts her career making $150,000 a year with 10 percent raises each year. She manages to save 30 percent of her salary. Let's also assume she is an ace investor and achieves 20 percent annual returns. (Returns like that are quite high, but remember, this is hypothetical.) Here's what her portfolio might look like: Age Portfolio size

40	$485,954
50	$1,272,599
60	$2,769,336
70	$5,765,994

Crazy, huh? Roughly the same trajectory. And again, quite an improbable scenario. So What's the Secret to Hitting $5 Million While You're Young Enough to Enjoy It? Obviously, there are people who do reach this $5 million net worth before their 70th birthday. You might assume these pentamillionaires got a nice head start by inheriting their wealth. And you're right -- some do. But that only accounts for about 20 percent of folks, according to . According to research cited in , a fair chunk of the $5 million-plus crowd is made up of senior corporate executives and entrepreneurs (17 percent and 12 percent, respectively). While that's interesting, it's not necessarily helpful for those of us who aren't hot-shot executives or heirs of multiple millions of dollars. So $5 million might be out of reach for the typical American worker. But... you don't need to aim for that goal to ensure a stable retirement on a seven-figure portfolio. You see, despite what the investors queried for the UBS study feel, retiring with $1 million is very much a reasonable goal for most of us to achieve financial comfort. And -- even better -- it's entirely within reach. Here's How ... Let's take similar scenarios to those outlined above and put it in much more realistic terms. First up is the 22-year-old fresh out of college making $45,000 a year (the average starting salary for 2013 graduates). He'll receive 3 percent annual raises, religiously save 10 percent of his salary, and get annual returns of 7 percent (a bit below the market's average of 10 percent). His portfolio would be worth over $1 million before his 57th birthday. If he works until he's 65, he'll have more than $1.9 million saved. Next let's look at the 30-year-old woman who just graduated law school. She starts off making $71,500 a year (the average salary for a first-year associate according to Robert Half Legal). She too receives 3 percent annual raises, saves 10 percent of her salary, and gets annual returns of 7 percent. Her portfolio would be worth over $1 million before she turns 60. And working until age 65 would bring her a portfolio of more than $1.6 million. Not Too Bad! But You Can Do Even Better It's also important to note that there are some positive factors that we didn't even include in the estimates above. First, we assumed these individuals invested a fixed 10 percent each year. But there may be some years you'll be able to invest even more using bonuses, tax refunds, etc. This would get you to the $1 million mark even quicker. Second, our scenarios assume flat 7 percent annual returns. Maybe over the course of your career, the market enjoys a bullish run and your returns are better than that, thus enabling you to achieve the $1 million goal sooner. Lastly, we only assumed they saved 10 percent of their pay. For many of us, our employers also contribute to our retirement plans with matching contributions up to a certain point. That alone could enable you to save an additional 3 percent each year without any additional belt tightening. Using our examples above, this employer retirement perk lowers the first saver's $1 million crossing party to before his 53rd birthday, and the woman's $1 million mark to before her 57th birthday. So although $5 million may not be within reach for "the rest of us," saving more than $1 million definitely is. And it's no more difficult than taking a disciplined approach to saving -- and investing -- a fixed percentage of your salary.

"We're taught to save, but we end up without enough money," says Siebold. "The average income per person in 2012 was $38,000. If you save 10 percent, you'll have $3,800 at the end of the year. That's not a model for wealth-building, and you'll never get rich that way."

12/25/2014

AstraZeneca to Acquire Omthera Pharma

AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN ) will pay shareholders of Omthera Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: OMTH ) $12.70 a share, valuing the drugmaker at approximately $323 million, in an acquisition deal announced today.

Less Omthera's existing cash and equivalents of $63 million, the enterprise value of the deal is approximately $260 million, according to AstraZeneca. However, if certain conditions are met, Omthera shareholders are in line for up to $120 million more.

Omthera has completed two phase 3 trials for Epanova, and reported success in lowering test subjects' high triglyceride and, in combination with a statin, HDL cholesterol levels. AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot commented, "The number of people with elevated triglyceride levels is rising rapidly across the world, due in part to the increasing prevalence of obesity and diabetes." Soriot added "This is an exciting acquisition that clearly complements our existing portfolio in cardiovascular and metabolic disease, one of our core therapy areas." The company expects a New Drug Application to be filed in the U.S. by mid-2013.

Omthera shareholders will receive contingent value rights (CVRs) up to an estimated $4.70 a share, for a total of $120 million, if certain milestones relating to Epanova are met. If the conditions for Epanova are reached, the total value of the acquisition would be an estimated $443 million.

The boards of directors of both AstraZeneca and Omthera have unanimously agreed to the deal, and assuming approval of Omthera shareholders and meeting customary regulatory conditions, the acquisition is expected to close the third quarter of 2013.

link

9 Reasons Why You'll Benefit to Join a Gym Right Now

CrossFit personal trainer doing push ups on kettle bells with small group of people in Gym. Vetta/Getty Images As much as we'd like to believe that chocolate cake and ice cream are the elixir for a long and healthy life, we know that's not the case. We also know that a regular exercise routine is one of the surest paths to a longer and healthier life. The Centers for Disease Control recommends that adults get at least 150 minutes of moderately intense aerobic exercise every week -- but less than half of all Americans do so. And for the millions of people who would like to do better, this is often the time of year to consider joining a gym. We can all find lots of excuses for not getting our bodies in motion, but there's an equally compelling list of reasons why we should do so. Whether you want to lose weight, gain muscle, tone up or improve your overall health, new year's resolutions are the No. 1 reason people of all fitness levels pony up the bucks and decide to join a conveniently located gym. Here are nine reasons why a gym membership is a really good idea, starting with the most obvious one. (An upcoming post will provide you with reasons why you should skip the gym and find another way to exercise.) 1. Get Healthy A gym encourages you to do a balanced program that includes both aerobic and strength training exercises. These promote heart health and weight loss, help prevent osteoporosis and improve muscle strength, balance and flexibility. If weight loss is a primary goal, consider the mantra of a friend who tells me "nothing tastes as good as getting in shape feels." 2. Find Support and Motivation Some people really enjoy exercise; for others, it's a chore. If you fall into that latter group, being surrounded by other people who are in the same boat can provide the incentive you need to make exercise part of your regular routine. Your initial intention might be to drag yourself to the gym twice a week, but once you find your rhythm, you may end up going on a more regular basis, which will help make your goals more attainable. 3. Get Stress Relief According to the Mayo Clinic, virtually any form of exercise can act as a stress reliever -- whether you're a serious athlete or an out of shape wannabe. Physical activity boosts the brain's production of endorphins, which simply makes us feel better physically and have a brighter emotional outlook. Exercise reduces tensions in both the body and the mind, which can improve your mood and the quality of your sleep. For many people, the gym becomes a bit of sanctuary where you can turn off the phone and forget all of the troubles at work or in your personal life. 4. Learn From the Pros Many gyms now have professional trainers on staff -- often people with college degrees in sports science or other related fields, along with personal training certificates. They are trained to design exercise programs that fit your individual needs in a fun and safe way, showing you proper exercise techniques so that you don't hurt yourself and that you get the most out of each exercise routine. 5. Sample the Variety One of the big advantages a gym has over your guest room/home gym is the wide array of weights, machines, exercise classes and other elements. This gives you the opportunity to try new exercise equipment and vary your routine. If you do the same workout day-in and day-out, your body builds a type of muscle memory and the gains you make are incrementally decreased. Fitness experts say that finding different ways to exercise the same muscles and muscle groups can improve the quality of your workout. 6. Learn From Each Other Inevitably you'll see the people around you doing exercises that are new to you and may look sort of fun. You can certainly borrow and learn from others, but with this caveat: make sure you learn the proper technique so that you don't injure yourself. Just because someone else is doing something that looks interesting, doesn't mean that they know what they're doing. On the other hand, most people are happy to share the knowledge they've acquired. Ask them what that exercise is meant to accomplish and about the proper form to do it right. 7. Sweat Together Many people find exercise classes to be the most efficient and fun way to get a full body workout. You can do everything from Aqua Arthritis (where there's a pool) to Zumba, and from kickboxing to yoga. There's usually a very energetic leader to help provide you with some extra energy and motivation. Many people do have to get over the hump initially of being the class newbie, where it seems like you're the only one who doesn't know the right steps or positions, or the only man in a class of a dozen women. (Granted, that's not necessarily a problem for all men) Don't worry though. They are concentrating on their own form and not watching yours. 8. Check out the Holiday Deals This is often the best time of year to join a gym because many of them are offering steep price discounts and incentives to join now. According to the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association, a record 52.9-million Americans belonged to a health club last year, up more than 5 percent from the previous year. Most gyms offer a trial day or week to test out the gym. Take advantage of that to check out the atmosphere and the crowds. Most gyms also offer you a 30-day period during which you can change your mind and get out of the contract, but make sure you get that in writing. If you don't join just before or after the new year, June and July are often the best months to find good deals. 9. Get Going If you're serious about losing weight and getting in better shape, there's no better time to start than right now. The longer you put it off, the more excuses you'll come up with. And if one of your goals is to rock the swim suit next summer, you're going to need three to six months to see the gains. It doesn't happen overnight. If you do decide to take the plunge and join a gym, you may want to consult with your doctor, just to make sure that certain exercise programs are not going to do more harm than good. And don't try to keep up on the first day with the very buff looking person working out nearby. Go slow at the start to avoid injuries, which can discourage you from returning to the gym next week. More from Drew Trachtenberg
•How to Maximize Your Social Security Benefits •Do You Spend More Time Researching Your Phone or 401(k)? •It's Time for More of Us to Party with the Boss

12/24/2014

The Sleek Ghost Is Revolutionary - but Will Anyone Buy It?

Ghost Ship Jim Cole/AP KITTERY, Maine -- Sadly, Ghost is all revved up with no place to go. The angular vessel looks like a waterborne stealth fighter. It rides atop underwater torpedo-shaped tubes powered by a pair of 2,000-horsepower gas turbine engines. Gyroscopes keep the ride smooth. The brainchild of a wealthy inventor and entrepreneur, Ghost might never be a familiar household name like the Humvee -- even if it works as advertised -- because its creator built a warship the military isn't convinced it needs. "It's a revolutionary program," said Gregory Sancoff, founder and CEO of Juliet Marine Systems. "Nothing like this has ever been built by anybody, not even the Navy." He might be right: The Ghost rides on struts connected to engine assemblies he says take advantage of supercavitation, traveling underwater inside a bubble of gas. It's a new application of technology that Sancoff insists will make Ghost fast -- it's so far hit about 35 mph but he believes it can approach 60 mph -- while staying stable even in rough seas. $15 Million Prototype But Sancoff has taken the usual step of sinking $15 million into a prototype that he hopes to sell to the Navy, turning upside down a process in which normally the military identifies a need before soliciting proposals and seeking funding. "The Navy is pretty skeptical of what we've been working on but they're starting to take us more seriously," said Sancoff, whose company operates out of a leased warehouse at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. Sancoff, who as a young man raced hydroplanes, hatched his idea for the 60-foot-long vessel after terrorists using a small boat full of explosives nearly sank the USS Cole in 2000. He thinks the Navy needs a fast patrol boat to protect larger and more costly warships when they're most vulnerable, like when they're passing through the Strait of Hormuz at the southern end of the Persian Gulf. The Ghost's smooth ride makes it an ideal platform for weapon systems -- and for transporting Navy SEALs, Sancoff said. Supercavitation has been used to produce high-speed torpedoes, but Sancoff said he's adapted it for the first time to propel a surface warship. Under his design, dual propellers were moved to the front instead of the rear and underwater ailerons control the vessel, which banks like an airplane when it's turning. He was so convinced that he created a company and built it. What the Navy Says That sort of entrepreneurial spirit used to drive military innovation but it's no longer the norm in an era of high-tech, costly programs. These days, the Pentagon decides its military requirements and then solicits proposals. The Navy currently does not have a requirement for such a patrol boat, said Chris Johnson, spokesman for the Naval Sea Systems Command. But Sancoff's design is at least worth a look, even if it turns out to be unfit for military use, said retired Vice Adm. Pete Daly, CEO of the U.S. Naval Institute, an independent, nonpartisan organization in Annapolis, Maryland. "The high ground for the U.S. Navy is to take this and evaluate it and learn from it," Daly said. "The propulsion system could be valuable in other applications. You've got to keep that door open to innovation," he said. Sancoff insists the military has expressed at least some interest in his company, which counts retired Navy admirals and one former U.S. senator, John Sununu of New Hampshire, as board members. "Any time you're building something so different, you're going to find people that just don't understand it. You've really got to spend some time understanding what's going on here," Sancoff said. It could be a tough sale. How an Entrepreneur Thinks Even in the best of times, the Navy is predisposed to buy larger, multi-missions ships instead of smaller niche vessels. And the Navy's current budget struggles pose perhaps the biggest obstacle. Sancoff is also proposing marketing his vessel to other navies and wants to build a new version that'll be a bit bigger. He believes it will be flexible enough for other tasks, like anti-submarine and mine warfare operations. Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute, said the small company faces an uphill battle. The Navy's speedy new littoral combat ships are designed to fulfill the Ghost's proposed mission, and Thompson is skeptical that the Navy would be willing to go out on a limb for new design for a ship that's too small and light to accommodate heavy armor and bigger weapon systems. Juliet Marine needs plenty of money, and perhaps a friend or two in Congress, he said, to circumvent an acquisition process that poses obstacles for small startups like Juliet, which has 15 employees. "I wish them luck," Thompson said. "Entrepreneurship is not always rewarded at the Pentagon." Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. More from The Associated Press
•Shippers Absolutely, Positively Trying to Get Those Gifts Out •BMW to Replace Air Bags Across U.S. •Top Business Stories of the Year Affect Us All, Somehow

12/23/2014

Starbucks, Dunkin' Eye Dinner Foods to Boost Evening Sales

Credit: StarbucksStarbucks' artichoke and goat cheese flat bread NEW YORK -- In an attempt to keep the sales and profits flowing nearly around the clock, Dunkin' Donuts (DNKN) and Starbucks (SBUX) are planning to sell more dinner-friendly foods in 2015. The endless-work clock that many folks are on -- constantly checking emails and text messages -- may be causing the need for certain restaurant chains to evolve in order to compete with go-to fast food dinner destinations Chipotle (CMG) and McDonald's (MCD). "Though breakfast remains our core, today people are seeking all-day dining, and they want to eat what they want, when they want it and where they want it -- that's why we are so committed to menu innovation and giving our guests even more options that they can enjoy any time of day," John Costello, Dunkin' Donuts president, global marketing and innovation, said in an interview with TheStreet. Dunkin' Donuts has already begun to introduce a dinner staple -- steak -- this fall, recently making a steak sandwich and a wrap with eggs permanent additions to its menu. Only 40 percent of Dunkin' Donuts' sales come after 11 a.m., leaving a lot of room for growth. Sales Boost With hardier menu items typically reserved for dinner, sales could grow at the more than 2,300 Dunkin' Donuts in the U.S. that are open 24 hours. Most Dunkin' Donuts, Costello said, are open until 10 p.m. Dunkin' Donuts may draw inspiration for dinner from overseas. "We have a variety of products and flavors that are tailored to the regional preferences of our guests around the world such as donuts stuffed, topped and glazed with everything from rice pudding to saffron to crushed pistachios in India," Costello said. Dunkin' Donuts India also offers burgers and wraps. Dunkin' Donuts' focus on food for those on the go contrasts with Starbucks' goal of trying to keep customers inside its remodeled coffeehouses. Moving Forward Starbucks is pressing ahead with its evening menu, which consists of small plates to be shared and of wines and beer, after testing the menu in 32 U.S. stores in seven markets since 2012. The home of the fall-favorite pumpkin spiced latte plans to "add several hundred evening stores as we move the program into the full launch phase that thoughtfully leverages the insights we gain during the test period," Starbucks Chief Operating Officer Troy Alstead said on the company's earnings call last week. Starbucks now offers 10 standard small plate options as part of its evening menu, such as truffle macaroni and cheese and double chocolate brownie bites. There are also five choices of red wine, three white wines, a sparkling rose and proseco. New Ideas On Dec. 4, Starbucks will hold its biannual investor meeting where it intends to share more "details around new food and beverage innovations, reimagined store designs and new store formats, mobile order and pay, and the expansion of our evening programs," CEO Howard Schultz said. Starbucks declined to comment for this story. Starbucks is trying to capitalize on what has been a successful foray into offering consumers lunch options, including warm sandwiches and packaged platters called "bistro boxes" that contain vegetables and hummus. "We saw strong growth in the midday between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., and this is another encouraging sign that our food and beverage innovations are geared towards expanding the afternoon day part are gaining momentum with customers," Alstead said on the call. Sales of food, notably breakfast, contributed two percentage points to Starbucks' 5 percent increase in Americas same-store sales in the third quarter. Alstead said that sales growth in food, "indicates that Starbucks is increasingly recognized by our customers as an attractive option for lunch." At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

12/22/2014

Intel and Rockchip Release an ARM Chip: What You Need to Know

Liliputing reported Rockchip is "showing off one of the first chipsets" based on the partnership that Intel (NASDAQ: INTC ) and Rockchip announced back in May. In particular, it looks as though this is a dual core ARM (NASDAQ: ARMH ) Cortex A5 processor which has an integrated 2G/3G modem as well as separate RF chip that integrates 2G/3G RF, Wi-Fi/Bluetooth, and GPS functionality.

What seems to have people freaked out is that this is based on an ARM processor rather than an Intel processor, leading some to believe that there has been an abrupt change in plan.

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

This is SoFIA's predecessor
Remember when Intel first announced its SoFIA system-on-chip platform for low-cost smartphones and tablets? Intel's management team explicitly noted that they were taking a design that had already been under development from its "feature phone" (i.e., dumbphone) product offerings and goosing it to include Intel-designed processor cores.

What we are seeing here with the recently announced platform from Rockchip and Intel is a modem platform known as the XMM 6321 (consisting of the XG632 baseband/SoC and AG620 RF chip). According to an Intel road map that leaked quite some time ago, this part was under development well before Intel inked its deal with Rockchip.

Why release this chip?
In this day and age, smartphones are ubiquitous, and with each passing day "smartphones" displace traditional "feature phones" as prices on the latter come down. It's interesting, then, to see Intel (along with Rockchip) release what is essentially a feature-phone-targeted part.

According to the aforementioned leaked roadmap, Intel had listed Samsung, Huawei, LG, and ZTE as (potential) customers for this product. The fact that the product is still being launched leads me to believe that there is nontrivial demand for the platform, and given how low Intel's Mobile and Communications Group revenue is (it raked in a mere $1 million last quarter), my guess is that Intel is happy to grab any business that it can.

What does the future hold?
Intel's CEO Brian Krzanich talked about the company's strategy with SoFIA and the low-cost smartphone market on the company's most recent earnings call. He alleged that Intel has "SoFIA in the labs running" and that the LTE version of SoFIA is "on schedule" for the "first half of [2015]."

These chips, by their very name ("Smart or Feature Phone on Intel Architecture") will feature Intel-designed processor cores, and should actually offer much better performance than the dual core ARM Cortex A5 found inside of this XMM 6321 modem platform. That said, SoFIA will probably be more expensive to build, so it probably won't go into the same types of phones as the XMM 6321 will.

Foolish bottom line
When all is said and done, this new chip likely doesn't mean too much for Intel from a revenue perspective; the revenue per chip that Intel will be able to get from it is probably not high, and it's not clear how many Intel will actually be able to sell.

However, given that XMM 6321 apparently served as the springboard for Intel's upcoming SoFIA product, I'd say that whether it generates a material amount revenue or not, it was still a worthwhile for Intel to develop it.

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!

12/21/2014

5 Tax Strategies to Pay for College Without Going Broke

Saving for college is not for the faint of heart. The cost of an education has been spiraling upward and although there are some fine 529 plans to help, the numbers can be mind-boggling.

For men and women who own their own businesses, there are a few tips that can help them create a “tax scholarship” for their children, according to William Cummings, president and owner of Cummings Financial Organization, a money management firm based in Tampa, Fla.

“Hopefully people start planning early,” said Cummings, who used his ideas to help put his three children through college. Owning his own business gave him the chance, he said, to take advantage of IRS rules to help pay the tuition bills.

Cummings, who calculates that the cost of a year of public school tuition could rise past $33,000 by the 2020 academic year, offers tips that anyone can use to reduce the cost of college. They include living at home, establishing in-state residency and placing 529 plan savings in the name of a grandparent, thereby increasing the chances a student will be eligible for student aid programs.

(It's worth noting that while 529 plans held by grandparents are not reportable on the federal student aid application, using the account to pay for college will affect the student's aid eligibility the following year.)

There are also various tax credits, including the Lifetime Learning Credit, which allows parents to deduct $2,000 of educational expenses per year for dependent children.

Any strategy to help ease the tuition burden must be weighed against the tax consequences to the prospective student and the parents, Cummings says.

Parents, Cummings said, shouldn’t be too quick to borrow against or slow their retirement plan contributions. It might be better, he said, to use student loans or aid, “because you can’t get a scholarship for retirement.”

For small-business owners, here are Cummings’ 5 Tax Tips to Pay for College Without Going Broke:

Hire Your Children

1. Hire Your Children

Giving the kids the chance to work is a good way to shift income. This helps because they probably won’t earn enough to owe taxes. The money can be set aside in an IRA or other investment vehicle. For example, if a child does office work or painting or lawn mowing on rental properties for, say $2,500 per year, the savings can build up over several years before high school graduation. Cummings says it’s important to document the job and ensure that the work is legitimate.

Stock Transfer

2. Stock Transfer

Putting stock owned by parents in the name of a child can save tax payments. Beware, Cummings says, of the so-called kiddie tax, though, that mandates children can make at most $2,000 per year in unearned income using this strategy. Anything above that is subject to the tax rate of the parents.

Tuition Reimbursement

3. Tuition Reimbursement

Offering employees tuition reimbursement for taking college courses can lower costs because of the tax benefits associated with such programs. The IRS puts a cap of $5,250 on such a program. It’s important that all employees receive the same benefits. In other words, the children of the business owner can’t receive a benefit not available to other employees.

Gift or Leaseback

4. Gift or Leaseback

By making a gift of a piece of property to a child and then leasing it back, the money saved in lower tax payments can be put toward paying for college, as can any lease payments. Beware of the kiddie tax mentioned in No. 2, which applies up to age 24 unless the child is no longer a dependent of the parents.

Divorce Planning

5. Divorce Planning

For couples no longer married, but able to work on college strategies together, there are ways to maximize tax benefits. Generally, such planning involves deciding which parent claims a deduction for the child as a dependent, leaving the other free to take advantage of tax saving rules while avoiding the kiddie tax.

---

Related on ThinkAdvisor:

12/20/2014

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q2 Earnings Preview: The Ruby Month for a Reason

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) will post its second-quarter 2014 financial results and business outlook on its investor relations website on Monday, July 21, 2014, at approximately 1:05 p.m. Pacific Time.

Netflix Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings, Chief Financial Officer David Wells and Chief Content Officer Ted Sarandos will host a live video discussion about the Company's financial results and business outlook at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.

Wall Street anticipates that the Online Video Streamer will earn $1.15 per share for the quarter, which is $0.66 more than last year's profit of $0.49 per share. iStock expects Netflix to beat Wall Street's consensus number, the iEstimate is $1.20.

[Related -May 20 Breakdown Trend Day Trading Update]

Sales, like earnings per share (EPS), are expected to grow, jumping an impressive 24.90% year-over-year (YoY). The consensus revenue estimate for Q2 is $1.34 billion versus last year's $1.07 billion.

Netflix operates as an Internet television network, is engaged in the Internet delivery of TV shows and movies directly on TVs, computers, and mobile devices in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Domestic Streaming, International Streaming, and Domestic DVD. The company also provides DVDs-by-mail membership services. As of May 21, 2014, it had approximately 48 million customers in approximately 40 countries.

We aren't alone in expecting a good quarter. Wedbush analyst, Michael Pachter says he is "Expecting a Q2 beat as the popularity of original content should offset seasonality. Our current estimates are for revenue of $1.34 billion and EPS of $1.13, versus consensus of $1.34 billion and $1.15, and guidance of $1.12 (Netflix did not provide revenue guidance). We modeled Q2 domestic streaming sub net adds of 0.52 million, in line with guidance, but down from 0.63 million in Q2:13, reflecting the negative impact of seasonality."

[Related -Breakout and Trade Target Planning for Netflix NFLX]

Does that even make sense, a beat but below the consensus? Who cares about company guidance, it all boils down to what Wall Street expects.

Anyway, we've had some success using Google's Search Volume Intensity (SVI) in gauging NFLX's prospects. SVI for the keyword "Netflix" dropped to an average reading of 55 in Q2 versus 65 in Q1, which is in line with Pachter's quarter to quarter projections.

However, year-over-year (YoY) searches for "Netflix" increased 5.8% in 2014 versus 2014, which means there could be some upside in net adds.

Forecasting better than expected results from Netflix is no big deal as the company posted a bullish earnings surprise for 19 of the last 20 quarterly checkups. On average, NFLX's earnings came in 47% higher than the consensus for the 19 bullish surprises.

Beating the street's outlook doesn't always mean the internet service provider's shares go up, but more often than not. Investors reacted positively to 10 of the 19 plus quarters with an average return of 22.58% in the days surrounding results.

The second quarter, however, has not been favorable for shareholders. NFLX's Q2, EPS-driven price sensitivity has a perfect track record in the last half-decade, falling five consecutive July announcements. From most recent back, Netflix slipped -5.41%, -24.59%, -3.5%, -13.98%, and -6.8% in the days before and after the last five Q2 reports.

Overall: The iEstimate, Google Trends, and Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)' history suggest another bullish surprise; however, investors should beware of Q2 negative price history.

USDA Monthly Cattle On Feed Report For December 1

The USDA's Monthly Cattle on Feed report for December 1, 2014, showed that Cattle on Feed was 101 percent of December 1, 2013.

Cattle placed in November was 96 percent of November 1, 2013, and Cattle Marketed for November was 89 percent of December 1, 2013. The data came pretty much as expected.

Posted-In: Futures Commodities Markets

Related Articles Tesla Motors Begins Pilot For 'Fast' Battery Pack Swap Option Live Cattle Ends Session Higher, Lean Hogs Mixed Dollar Higher As U.S. Winds Down UPDATE: American Realty Issues Statement Regarding Cole Capital VirnetX Gains 17% On Settlement Vs. Microsoft Wheat Futures Lower, Corn Futures Nearly Unchanged Around the Web, We're Loving... World Cup Championship of Binary Options! Huanity's Last Great Hope: Venture Capitalists Don't Miss The Next Webinar to Advance your Trading Will Apple Redefine How We Shop? What Did Josh Brown Say On Our Morning Show? We're Now Hiring Journalists for our Newsdesk!

12/17/2014

FactSet Research Systems Inc. Posts Higher Q3 Results; Meets EPS Views (FDS)

Before the opening bell on Tuesday morning, Factset Research Systems (FDS) reported its third quarter results, posting gains in earnings and revenue over last year’s Q3.

FDS’s Earnings in Brief

Factset reported third quarter revenues of $231.76 million, which are up 8% from last year’s Q3 revenues of $214.61 million. The company’s adjusted net income was up 6% to $53.1 million from $50.1 million reported last year. Adjusted EPS for the quarter came in at $1.25, marking an 11% improvement over last year’s Q3 EPS of $1.13. Factset’s EPS met analysts’ estimates, while revenues were slightly above expectations of $230.57 million. Looking ahead to next quarter, FDS sees EPS in the range of $1.30-$1.32 on revenue in the range of $235 million to $240 million. Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.29 on revenues of $235.6 million.

CEO Commentary

FDS chairman and CEO Philip Hadley had the following comments: “I’m pleased to see that our ASV growth rate accelerated to 7% and adjusted EPS grew by 11% in the just completed third quarter. We continued to capitalize on our opportunities as evidenced by adding 30 net new clients and 620 net new users in the past three months. I’m also excited to announce that Phil Snow has accepted the role as President, effective July 1st.”

FDS’s Dividend

Factset Research Systems recently raised its dividend by 11% to 39 cents from 35 cents per quarter. The company’s next dividend is payable today to all shareholders of record on May 30.

Stock Performance

FDS stock was inactive in pre-market trading. YTD, the stock is up 4.18%.

FDS Dividend Snapshot

As of Market Close on June 16, 2014

WMT dividend yield annual payout payout ratio dividend growth

Click here to see the complete history of FDS dividends.

11/21/2014

Cliffs Natural Resources: Why Deutsche Bank Cut Its Rating

After yesterday’s announcement that Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) would look to exit its Bloom Lake project, Deutsche Bank’s Jorge Beristain and team slashed their rating on the struggling iron miner to Hold from Buy. They explain why:

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Stripping out [Eastern Canada iron ore] operations from 1Q15 onwards, lowers Deustche Bank’s estimated EBITDA by an average of 5% over the next 3 years to ~$650m/yr, while reduced depreciation & amortization increases EPS. Incorporating estimated related closure costs of $700m (assuming $150m/yr in first three years and $125m/yr in following two) and
$71m legal loss in 1Q15, [net-present value, or] NPV declines $4/sh to $12/sh. However, we note some potential NPV offsets (not yet considered) include reduced maintenance capex and SG&A costs reduce could provide ~$1/sh tailwind. Should Cliffs be in a position to forego remaining $750m tailings dam capex, NPV could increase a further ~$3/sh…

Cliffs' price target of $10 [down from $17. Ed.] is now based on 0.85x (from prior ~1.0x) our revised NPV of ~$12 ($16), calculated under a discounted cash-flow methodology. Increased net-debt-to-EBITDA is becoming a source concern and reason for applying 15% discount to NPV. Risks include higher-/lower-than-expected iron ore and coal prices, possibility of breaching covenants (on reduced cash flow generation) and increase/decrease of foreign exchange rates, particularly for the Australian Dollar.

Investors don’t appear too worried today, however. Cliffs shares have gained 6.3% to $8.69 at 1:35 p.m. today, even as BHP Billiton (BHP) has fallen 1.5% to $55 and Rio Tinto (RIO) has dropped 2.4% to $45.07.

11/12/2014

The 1 Thing That Would Make Me Sell Altria Stock

Heading into 2014, Altria Group (NYSE: MO ) was one of my largest holdings. The stock comprised 14% of my IRA portfolio. This allocation got even higher as the year unfolded, because Altria stock rallied considerably. This made me uncomfortable, because tobacco companies face some strong headwinds that may make future growth difficult.

Because of this, I decided to cut back on my tobacco exposure by selling about half of my Altria shares recently. However, I still hold a position, because the stock still has merits that make it worth owning. The most prominent of which is the dividend. Altria is a famous dividend stock, having raised its dividend an amazing 48 times in the last 44 years. Altria stock has a 4.2% dividend yield at recent prices, which makes it a solid pick for investors who need income now, such as retirees.

As a young investor with a long time horizon, though, I'm equally as concerned about dividend growth over the next several decades as I am with current dividend yield. For these reasons, I may sell my entire Altria position -- especially if Altria's foray into e-cigarettes flops.

Few growth opportunities left for big tobacco
Smoking is on the decline in the United States because of rising public and regulatory scrutiny of tobacco. It's true that Altria has a large portfolio of other products, including chewing tobacco, wine, and an equity stake in brewer SABMiller. But let's be clear: Owning Altria stock is about cigarettes first and foremost. Altria's flagship Marlboro brand, and by extension its Philip Morris USA business, represents the vast majority of the company's revenue and profits. Altria's smokeable products represented 90% of its revenue and operating income in the most recent quarter.

Unfortunately, the decline of smoking is taking its toll. Altria's operating profit from smokeable products over the first nine months of the year is down 5% year over year. Altria has produced growth from its smokeless products and wine, as well as a significant dividend from its SABMiller investment, but these still aren't enough to offset the decline in smoking. Over the first three quarters, Altria's earnings per share are down 5%.

If smoking goes down more, Altria is going down right along with it. That is, of course, unless the company comes up with a way to replace its traditional cigarettes with a different product.

Are e-cigs Altria's best hope?
Altria's venture into e-vapor is through its subsidiary Nu Mark, which manufactures the MarkTen brand. Altria initially began a trial of its MarkTen products last year in Indiana and Arizona, but after satisfactory results there, rolled out the brand nationally. Through the end of last quarter, MarkTen achieved distribution in 80,000 retail outlets across the country, and according to Altria, the product was ranked in the top three e-vapor brands in the western U.S. by retail market share. This quarter, Altria plans to complete its national expansion to the eastern half of the country.

It's clear that Altria has grand ambitions for its e-cig business. Altria also purchased Green Smoke's e-vapor business for $110 million. Investors should hold out high hopes for the MarkTen brand now that it has national reach thanks to Altria's superb distribution capabilities. In addition, Altria believes its proprietary technology will be favored by consumers thanks to its differentiated design. The company maintains that its "FourDraw" technology provides a better user experience. Altria doesn't yet break out its e-cig business as a separate reporting segment, presumably because it still represents a fledgling operation. But if traditional smoking continues to decline, the e-cig business will become hugely important for the company's future.

Not selling out... yet
Even though I've halved my position in Altria, I'm still holding on. The main reason is Altria's dividend, which is among the market's very best. Altria stock currently yields a hefty 4.2%, and it manages to pass along high single-digit dividend raises each year, which is very attractive for investors. However, with the well-documented declines in smoking in the United States, I'm concerned about Altria's long-term future.

It's critical for Altria to innovate in new product categories if it's going to continue its reputation as a premier dividend stock. I invest in companies with the stated intention of holding the stocks for decades. If Altria can't make significant progress in e-cigs, I'm not sure it will still have a place in my portfolio.

Top dividend stocks for the next decade
The smartest investors know that dividend stocks simply crush their non-dividend paying counterparts over the long term. That's beyond dispute. They also know that a well-constructed dividend portfolio creates wealth steadily, while still allowing you to sleep like a baby. Knowing how valuable such a portfolio might be, our top analysts put together a report on a group of high-yielding stocks that should be in any income investor's portfolio. To see our free report on these stocks, just click here.

11/09/2014

HP's 3D Printing Technology: How Concerned Should Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS) Investors Be?

If you're closely following the 3D printing space, you know that Hewlett-Packard Company's (NYSE: HPQ ) much-anticipated entrance into the fast-growing 3D printing market arrived last week. The 2D printing king unveiled its new 3D printing technology called "Multi Jet Fusion" and the enterprise-focused 3D printer based upon this tech that it plans to bring to market in 2016. The printer is reportedly 10 times faster than those powered by the leading 3D printing technologies, while sporting high precision, high resolution, and brilliant color capabilities -- and it will be priced less than the competition.

How concerned should investors in industry leader Stratasys Ltd. (NASDAQ: SSYS ) be?

HP's Multi Jet Fusion 3D printer. Source: HP.

HP's 3D Printing Technology

HP's Multi Jet Fusion tech is impressive. According to Computerworld, here's how Terry Wohlers, the 3D printing industry guru who runs the company that publishes the annual Wohlers Report, weighed in:

HP's new 3D printer, if people see that and they're not blown away, then they don't understand what it takes to build parts using conventional manufacturing. It's not only a game changer, it's going to rewrite the rules in the 3D printing industry.

HP's 3D printing technology builds upon the company's proprietary thermal inkjet printing tech that powers many of its 2D printers. There are key commonalities between the technologies, so it's perhaps not surprising that HP was able to leverage its 2D printing expertise to achieve such outstanding speed, resolution, precision, and color properties with its 3D printing tech. HP's proclamation that its printer is 10 times faster than competing technologies uses the leading 3D printing technologies in the United States as reference points: selective laser sintering, or SLS, (one of 3D Systems' technologies) and fused deposition modeling, or FDM, (one of Stratasys' core techs).

How does HP's 3D printer achieve its industry-topping speed? By employing a unique feature -- a wide print bar with about 30,000 microscopic nozzles spraying 350 million drops per second of thermoplastic onto the print platform. The drops are 20 microns in size, which allows for extremely high resolution of about 1,200 dpi (dots per inch); most comparable printers have resolutions about half that.

HP's Multi Jet Fusion 3D printer -- the print bar is shown on the right. Source: HP.

HP showed off some examples demonstrating the fine detail and brilliant color capabilities of its printer. Here's a slick model of an oil rig:

Source: HP.

Simplified, HP's tech can be thought of as a kind of binder jetting technology, with a touch of laser sintering tech thrown in. Like binder jetting, the process involves the application of a binding agent -- which HP calls a "fusing agent" -- to the materials that are being built up layer by layer. And like laser sintering, the process involves applying what HP calls an "energy source" to fuse the materials.

As for materials, HP's printer will initially be able to print in a wide range of plastics. However, the company has said that it plans to expand the printer's capabilities to include ceramics and metals.

I'm a bit skeptical that this tech will be able to successfully compete with direct metal laser sintering --the most widely used metal 3D printing tech -- and electron beam melting when it comes to printing metals. (Among the publically traded players, 3D Systems offers DMLS printers, while Arcam is the sole manufacturer of EBM printers.) Binder jetting generally isn't considered as effective as these technologies at producing high-density metal components. Very high densities are required for critical end-use applications, such as in the aerospace and medical implant industries. That said, HP is surely pouring money into research and development, so a competitive metal 3D printer is possible.

Does Stratasys have anything to fear from HP?

The short answer is "Possibly down the road." While HP has had well-publicized stumbles in the recent past, it shouldn't be underestimated. The company has deep pockets and already counts as customers many of the companies that it will likely be targeting with its 3D printer. So, it has the potential to offer compelling package deals and force margin squeezes on its smaller, pure-play 3D printing competitors.

That said, there is still a huge difference between unveiling a compelling product and actually successfully bringing it to market. For this reason -- and the reasons I'll outline below -- investors in Stratasys should sit tight, as there is no reason for undue concern at this point.

The 3D printing market is projected to explode in size
According to the 2014 Wohlers Report, revenue for the industry grew year over year by 35% to $3.1 billion in 2013. Wohlers projects that the market will exceed $21 billion by 2020. That's a torrid annual growth rate of more than 31%. Other companies are predicting even faster growth.

So, there's room at the 3D printing party for a new entrant, even a big player.

HP's entrance could accelerate the industry's growth
HP's entrance into the market could benefit Stratasys by helping increase the total size of the market. 3D printing is still in its early stages, especially for production applications. The entrance of a company of HP's size into the market should help increase awareness of the technology, which could speed up the market's already projected fast growth.

Additionally, when a new formidable company enters a market, it forces existing players to up their innovation game. So, it's likely that the two leaders, Stratasys and 3D Systems, will ramp up their R&D spending. This could unleash even faster innovation in the space, which could lead to an acceleration in the growth of the market.

HP's 3D printer launch is at least two years away
It won't be until 2016 at the earliest that HP launches its printer. One-and-a-half to two years is an eternity in the tech world. Stratasys' product offerings won't remain static during this period. The company has maintained a steady R&D budget in the 10%-11% of revenue range, which has enabled it to continue to improve its technology and roll out new products.

Stratasys' largely R&D-driven organic growth is a key reason that it should be effective at fending off competition from HP and other new entrants into the market. While competitor 3D Systems has a few advantages in its moat bag of tricks that Stratasys does not -- namely its greater diversity of technologies, its metal printer offerings, and its Project Ara partnership with Google to develop a high-speed, continuous, fabrication-grade platform -- the fact that its growth has largely been acquisition-driven could make it more vulnerable than Stratasys over the long term, in my opinion.

Stratasys is diversified
Stratasys' revenue breakdown by segment for Q2:

Segment Percentage of Total Revenue

Product, excluding MakerBot*	67.5%
MakerBot	18.8%
Services	13.7%

*Includes sales of printers and materials. Source: Stratasys Q2 earnings report.

Stratasys closed on its acquisitions of Solid Concepts and Harvest Technologies, both of which provide on-demand 3D printing services, in the second quarter. So, its services percentage of revenue will almost surely increase in the near term.

Stratasys has three 3D printing technologies upon which its 3D printers are based:

Fused deposition modeling, or FDM PolyJet Wax deposition modeling, or WDM

Which technologies and business segments might be most vulnerable to competition from HP's printer?
Stratasys' proprietary PolyJet technology is the most similar to HP's tech. It jets layers of UV-curable liquid photopolymer onto a build tray. Its key strengths are its ability to produce complex shapes, intricate details, and smooth surfaces.

However, there are at least three factors that should help mitigate HP's competitive threat here:

Two analysts have opined that HP's tech appears more similar to 3D Systems' multijet modeling technology than to Stratasys' PolyJet tech. If this proves accurate, it's not Stratasys that has the lowest-hanging fruit. Stratasys' PolyJet line is heavily geared toward advanced prototyping, rather than production. It seems that HP's printer will be aimed at production applications. Stratasys' Objet Connex500 Connex printers -- a high-end line that's been selling well -- sport 16-micron resolution versus HP's printer's 20-micron resolution.

Stratasys' Fortus 3D printers, which are powered by FDM tech, could also be vulnerable. These printers are primarily targeted to production applications, so HP's printer's speed advantage should put it in play as a competitor for some applications.

In addition to targeting enterprise customers, HP will surely be marketing its 3D printer to on-demand 3D printing service operations, which could present competition to Stratasys' services segment. Last fall, HP CEO Meg Whitman implied such when she was quoted by the The Register as saying: "[We're asking] how do we commercialise to print faster, at lower price points, to enable service providers?"

In fact, Shapeways CEO Peter Weijmarshausen joined HP execs on the stage last week to share his accolades of the printer. Shapeways is the Amazon.com of the 3D printing space, providing 3D printing services for consumers through to larger businesses, with a focus on consumers and small businesses.

Which products appear safe from competition from HP?
The company's desktop models should be safe, as HP's initial offering is intended for a factory floor. Stratasys' well-known MakerBot printers fall into this category, as do its uPrint and Mojo printers. These latter printers, which are based on FDM tech, are commercial-grade machines targeted to enterprise customers.

Additionally, Stratasys' WDM 3D printers shouldn't be affected by HP's entrance into the market. These printers build waxlike castings for the dental market. Stratasys doesn't break out its printer sales by product line, but it's a big player in the dental market.

Bottom line

No matter how compelling HP's 3D printing technology is, it's highly unlikely that one technology is ever going to be the best fit for all -- or even most -- applications and materials. Furthermore, since the 3D printing market is projected to explode in size and Stratasys has proven that it can both innovate and execute well, its future still looks bright at this point.

Don't miss this $19 trillion emerging industry that will dwarf 3D printing
One bleeding-edge technology is about to put the World Wide Web to bed. Experts are calling it the single largest business opportunity in the history of capitalism. One small-cap stock is sitting at the epicenter of this megatrend. It's up 50% over the last year, but it's still early in the game. Click here for details.

11/07/2014

Ron Muhlenkamp's Quarterly Memorandum To Investors

My first draft of this letter, which I wrote three weeks ago began with:

Europe has not solved its problems Nor has Japan; Nor has China; Nor has the U.S.

The rest of that draft is now obsolete.

Since mid-September, several items have changed—some economic, some market-related, some psychological.

Economically…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its estimate of world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth going forward. Germany (the strongest economy in Europe) has reported disappointing numbers, particularly in capital goods. It looks like Europe is back in recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) lowered its estimates of U.S. GDP growth for the next four years. Crude oil, which was trading in a range of $100-$110/barrel, fell to $82/barrel The surprise was an announcement by Saudi Arabia that they would not try to keep the price above $100/barrel. This is a change from their prior policy.

Markets…

Many hedge funds are having a poor year and are facing redemptions. CalPERS (California Public Employees' Retirement System) announced that they were withdrawing $25 billion from hedge funds. This drives "forced selling" by those funds. The difficulty is estimating the size of the forced selling. Ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yields fell from a range of 2.40%-2.6% to (briefly) below 2 percent. A huge move in a short period of time, the headline is "A Flight to Quality."

(Mostly) Psychological…

The battle against ISIS in the Middle East. Ebola and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC): It appears that the Center is not prepared for disease control.

All of this together resulted in stock market declines of 7-12% in a month, depending on which index you measure. The size of this "correction" was not unexpected, but the short time frame was unusual. On some days the forced selling appeared to feed on itself and bordered on panic liquidation. As I write this letter on 10/17, this selling has abated, at least for the time being. The good news is that we raised some cash coming into this period, and

11/04/2014

J.C. Penney's Friday Pop -- Is It Time to Get Into the Shares?

The lowest weekly initial jobless claims figure in seven years was not enough to lift U.S. stocks on Thursday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI ) down 0.9% and 1%, respectively. Unusually, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC ) was less volatile than the former two indexes, losing just 0.8%. In company-specific news, it appears that disappointing results from Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT ) and Kohl's this morning weighed on the retail sector today, including J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ) , which fell 2.8%. But J.C. Penney shares will make that up -- and more -- tomorrow, as the shares surged by nearly a fifth in today's after-hours session on better-than-expected first-quarter results. Is it time for investors to take a look at this turnaround story?

On the numbers: J.C. Penney beat Wall Street's expectations for revenues and earnings per share, as the following table demonstrates.

Actual/ Year-on-year growth (decline)

Analysts' c onsensus estimate

Revenues

$2.8 billion

6.3%

$2.7 billion

Earnings-per-share

($1.15)

(27.2%)

($1.25)

Source: J.C. Penney, Thomson FN

A same-store sales increase of 6.2% is impressive compared to its larger (and more stable) rivals – U.S. same-store sales at Walmart were flat, for example. However, this is partially a reflection of the challenges J.C. Penney faces and, consequently, greater volatility in its operating results.

Nevertheless, the company's outlook for the full year was pretty upbeat, including a mid-single-digit increase in same-store sales, significantly improved gross margin versus 2013, and free cash flow at breakeven. Moreover, the company appears to have warded off the risk of a cash crunch with an increased credit facility of $2.35 billion.

Where does that leave investors?
In early February when J.C. Penney announced its first instance of quarterly same-store sales growth in two-and-a-half years, I nevertheless wrote that individual investors ought to avoid the stock. Since the publication of that article on Feb. 4, the stock is up by nearly two-thirds – and that doesn't even include the pop the shares will experience tomorrow.

Was I wrong? In a very basic sense, the answer is, "Obviously, yes." In hindsight, it's now clear that the pessimism surrounding the stock was culminating as I was writing the article (literally so -- the shares put in their 52-week low of $4.90 on the publication date.) However, it's worth reviewing the rationale I invoked at the time, which had nothing to do with trying to second-guess investor sentiment:

Turnarounds are very difficult to pull off. Turnarounds in the brutally competitive retail sector are even more challenging, and the results can't always be maintained -- at which point, another turnaround becomes necessary. J.C. Penney belongs in the "too hard" pile – investors would be better off focusing their limited time and resources on outstanding, durable businesses.

Furthermore, one decent quarter does not diminish the challenges still ahead for J.C. Penney. The company isn't expected to earn a profit this year or the next; meanwhile, larger, profitable competitors -- bricks-and-mortar and online -- aren't exactly standing still. J.C. Penney may provide market-beating returns for investors who are either lucky, or a combination of knowledgeable and dedicated (or all three), but I continue to think the shares are generally unsuitable for individual investors.

Your credit card may soon be completely worthless
The plastic in your wallet is about to go the way of the typewriter, the VCR, and the eight-track tape player. When it does, a handful of investors could stand to get very rich. You can join them -- but you must act now. An eye-opening new presentation reveals the full story on why your credit card is about to be worthless -- and highlights one little-known company sitting at the epicenter of an earth-shaking movement that could hand early investors the kind of profits we haven't seen since the dot-com days. Click here to watch this stunning video.