What will boomers do in retirement?

Pat Cataldo, writing at Centredaily.com, has some interesting answers to the title question.

The 55-plus population is planning to work longer, save more, and spend less to cope with the economy. The tenor of the times is reflected in the fact that there will be no increase in Social Security benefits for the first time in three decades.

Perhaps the most important issue is dealing with longer lives. What will baby boomers do with the possibility of living 15 or 20 years beyond normal retirement age?

In his book "Portfolio Life, the New Path to Work, Purpose and Passion," author David Corbett offers an interesting look at coping with life changes.

The "Portfolio Life" concept outlines the pursuit of multiple roles and passions. It's the alignment of a person's activities with his or her values, beliefs and personal qualities. It includes five key areas:

Vocation or profession: working full time, part time, or not at all.

Avocation:recreation, personal pursuits and goals, physical fitness.

Community:giving back.

Family and friends:offering help and support.

Self-development:lifelong learning and spirituality.

ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator Is Poised For Growth

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is now at 0.0, the pivot point between growth and contraction, as reported in today's public release of the data through March 23rd. This is the eleventh consecutive week of improving data for the Growth Index and the highest level since August 12th of last year. The underlying WLI also improved, increasing from an adjusted 125.4 to 125.9 (see the fourth chart below).

The "Yo-Yo Years"

Earlier this month ECRI posted a public commentary (March 22) with the intriguing title The Yo-Yo Years. The commentary is a version of Lakshman Achuthan's presentation at the Bloomberg Sovereign Debt Conference in Frankfurt, Germany, and is a must-read for anyone following the ECRI data.

Essentially Achuthan argues that we are entering an era of more frequent recessions as a result of two things: 1) declining economic trend growth and 2) increased cyclical volatility following the end of the Great Moderation (circa mid-1980s to 2007). The "we" in the sentence above is not only the US but also much of the developed world, especially Europe. Moreover, the idea of global "decoupling" is largely a myth because of the export dependence of most economies.

Particularly interesting is Achuthan's discussion of the Bullwhip Effect, "where small fluctuations in consumer demand growth get amplified up the supply chain into big swings in demand as we move away from the consumer." Achuthan goes on to explain the mechanics of amplification of the Bullwhip effect on more frequent recessions in developed countries to the countries that supply intermediate and crude goods.

Year-over-Year Growth in the WLI

Triggered by another ECRI commentary, Why Our Recession Call Stands, I'm now focusing initially on the year-over-year growth of the WLI rather than ECRI's previously favored, and rather arcane, method of calculating the WLI growth series from the underlying WLI (see the endnote below). Specifically the chart immediately below is the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average of the WLI.