Last week the S&P successfully tested the 20 day moving average on Monday and broke out Tuesday with the rest of the week spent near Tuesday’s highs. With the US dollar continuing to dive and crude turning up (helping oil production and service companies) the market hasn’t been willing to give back much before the buyers jump in. The only negative has been in interest rates, which have fallen. This generally indicates money flowing out of the market, however in this case it may simply indicate money flowing out of the US Treasury to drive rates lower.
Additional confirmation of market optimism came from the VIX, which broke below the lows of the last several months, returning to levels not seen since early May. The Volitility Index (VIX) measures volatility of Index options and is also known as the Fear Index, where lower numbers mean lower fear (greater optimism). So the uptrend continues and we should look to buy pullbacks in strong stocks while confining shorts to intraday trades on relatively weak stocks.
Transportation was among the stronger sectors last week, having traded above weekly resistance the prior week, and closing higher this week. FedEx (FDX) shows a similar pattern, and broke out on Friday over recent daily highs while showing increased volume. The technical entry for a daily long would be above Friday’s high, with a stop under Thursday or Friday’s low, but an intraday pullback would provide a more favorable reward/risk. First target would be the daily pivot at $90, with a second target of $92.50-$93.50.
Another stock closing above its recent range on Friday was Humana (HUM). The HMO sector triggered as a daily buy setup on Friday after pulling back to the 20 day ma, while HUM probed lower a couple of times during the week before breaking above the daily range on increased volume on Friday. HUM could be traded long above Friday’s high ($51.01), and because the technical stop on the daily chart would be quite far away, a stop could be taken from the 60 min chart under $50.40 or under $49.80. Targets would be $51.40 and $53.
Coal stocks showed considerable strength last week. Massey Energy (MEE) broke above a key resistance level on Friday, while showing higher volume on both Wednesday and Friday’s green bars than on Thursday’s red bar. Although it is extended at the moment, watch for a pause or pullback on the daily chart, or a pullback to the 20ma on the 60min chart for a long entry for an eventual move to the 200 day ma at $37.50 or the daily pivot high at $39.
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