6/15/2012

Four favorites: Buyback bets


Our Buyback Premium Portfolio is beating the S&P 500 by more than 30% since its inception in 2000); the portfolio is up 17.50% vs. a decline of 12.55% in the S&P 500 over the same time frame.

Here's a look at the latest four addition to this portfolio: ConocoPhillips (COP), Seagate Technology (STX), Credit Acceptance (CACC) and Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE).

ConocoPhillips is one of the largest integrated energy companies in the U.S. and a worldwide leader in refining. It has extensive oil and gas reserves, which will increase in value as energy prices rise.

The stock�s 52-week range is $58.65-$81.80, earnings estimate for 2011 is $8.63 per share and for 2012 is $8.39 per share. The annual dividend is $2.64 per share, which yields 3.6%.

Conoco has been a robust repurchaser over the years. The company has reduced shares outstanding in the last 12 months by 9.6%.

Seagate Technology is the worldwide leader in hard disc drives. Extensive flooding last fall in Thailand � site of numerous factories for many tech manufacturers and suppliers � has impacted the industry.
Big names in the sector have reported that the global supply of hard disk drives would be seriously affected, possibly leading to a shortage.

However, Seagate just raised its revenue outlook for its fiscal Q2 and Q3, saying the impact from the Thailand flooding wasn�t as bad as expected on its operations, which should give it an advantage over rivals.

Seagate reports preliminary Q2 revenue of $3.1-$3.2 billion compared to consensus of $2.81 billion. For Q3, Seagate projects revenue of $4.2-$4.5 billion compared to consensus of $3.62 billion. Seagate reduced shares outstanding by 9.7% in the past 12 months.

Credit Acceptance provides auto loans to consumers, regardless of their credit history. The loans are offered through auto dealers, in what amounts to a win-win.

The dealers benefit from sales of vehicles to consumers who otherwise could not get financing, and customers who can�t get a loan for a vehicle get a second chance to establish their own credit.

The program allows dealer-partners to share in the profits not only from the sale of the vehicle, but also from its financing, and enables them to advertise �guaranteed credit approval.�

Third-quarter income was $50 million ($1.91 per share), compared to $42 million ($1.48 per share) in the same period the prior year. In the last 12 months, management has reduced shares outstanding by 5.2%.

Coca-Cola Enterprises bottles and sells Coca-Cola drinks in Europe; it is the third largest Coca-Cola bottler in the world.

Although it is hard to imagine that the ubiquitous Coke � the world�s most valuable brand � hasn�t already flooded the globe, CCE has recently announced plans to invade the Middle East by buying half the equity in the beverage business of Saudi Arabia-based Aujan Industries.

The Middle East is considered a high-growth region with the �highest rates of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink per-capita consumption,� according to CCE execs.

2012 earnings per share are anticipated to rise 10%-12%, with a 5%-9% increase in expected revenue.� �

CCE has been a consistent repurchaser, with $1 billion approved in buybacks in 2011 and another $500 expected in 2012. It has reduced shares outstanding by a whopping 7.9% in the last 12 months.


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