The headline economic signal for the coming week will be Thursday's advance estimate for first quarter GDP. In preparation for that announcement from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), here's a snapshot of GDP since 1947 together with the real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite.
The start date is when the BEA began reporting GDP on a quarterly basis. Prior to 1947, GDP was reported annually. To be more precise, what the lower half of the chart shows is the percent change from the preceding period in Real (inflation-adjusted) Gross Domestic Product. I've also included recessions, which are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
[Click all to enlarge]
What are mainstream economists forecasting for Q1 2011 GDP? Briefing.com lists a consensus estimate of 1.7%. The Wall Street Journal's April survey of 56 economists is more optimistic. It has a forecast range of 1.5% to 4.2%, which gives a median of 2.5% and a mean (average) of 2.7%. The full results can be downloaded from the WSJ in Excel format. Here is a table showing current WSJ survey estimates for quarterly GDP throughout 2011.
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