7/30/2012

JCP Losing “Significant” Market Share, Says Analyst; Will The Street Wait?

Same-store sales numbers released on Thursday showed strong gains for numerous retailers that report their sales on a monthly basis. JC Penney (JCP) decided last month to stop reporting sales on a monthly basis, and instead release its figures quarterly. That could help the company keep shareholders focused on the long game: JCP is in the midst of a major strategy shift led by new CEO Ron Johnson, who is asking for patience.

But even if JC Penney is keeping its monthly figures secret, the Street is using results from other retailers to try to figure out how the company is doing. And this month’s gains by some JCP competitors have them worried.

“Sales strength out of Macy’s (M), TJX Cos. (TJX), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT) and Old Navy/Gap (GPS) we think implies significant share loss at JCP,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Michelle Clark.

Johnson, who came to JCP after leading Apple’s (AAPL) wildly successful retail operations, has little to worry about for the time being. The hedge funds that advocated for him to be hired are willing to wait for results. Johnson is rebranding the company, buying Liz Claiborne (LIZ) brands, partnering with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO) , and making wide cost cuts, all strategies that will take awhile to play out.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the Street will continue to support the stock.

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