Apple: Wave Of iPhone Numbers Going Higher Post AT&T Talk

As you might imagine, estimates are going up for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone sales following upbeat remarks yesterday by AT&T’s (T) chief financial officer, John Stephens, who told an audience at a UBS conference that the iPhone was one of the main factors that has put AT&T on course to beat its record for smartphones sold in a quarter.

Several notes from the Street this morning are suggesting iPhone sales may beat expectations this quarter.

R.W. Baird’s William Power does some back-of-the-envelope stuff from the AT&T presentation: “AT&T previously stated that it sold roughly 2 million non-iPhone smartphones in Q3. Holding that figure steady would imply 7 million+ iPhone sales at AT&T alone this quarter.”

With Verizon Communications (VZ) and Sprint-Nextel (S), the U.S. could offer 14 million iPhone units. Add in international sales, which were the vast majority of sales, and you could be looking at 35 million iPhone units, he conjectures.

Power raises his own estimate to 31.2 million. He also cut his iPad estimate to 14 million units from 15 million after his team did “procurement checks” with the supply chain.

However, his estimate for Apple for the quarter still goes up, to $40.5 billion in revenue and EPS of $10.74 from a prior $38.6 billion and $9.97.

And analysts are grabbing from other sources as well, including meetings, the ubiquitous supply chain “checks.”

Citigroup’s Richard Gardner today reiterates an Outperform rating on Apple shares and a $500 price target.

“Our meetings in Taiwan suggest that Apple raised 4CQ11 iPhone orders to suppliers meaningfully just last week,” writes Gardner.

“The new iPhone build plan is meaningfully above the low-30�s million figure that we were hearing previously. Given such a significant order increase at this late stage in the quarter, it seems clear that Apple is headed for a meaningful upside surprise on iPhone shipments this quarter.”

Gardner also offers that build plans for the iPad, which had been the subject of some concern lately, appear to have “stabilized” in the vicinity of 12 million to 13 million units for this quarter, and may rise next quarter as a new model is rolled out.

Gardner also throws in a bit about an “iTV,” a dedicated Apple-branded television, about which there continues to be speculation of late. “Apple has not even defined specs yet,” he writes, so the project is likely 9 to 12 months away, at least, from being an actual shipping product.

Back to iPhone, UBS’s Maynard Um this morning reiterates a Buy rating on Apple stock and a $510 price target, and raised his iPhone estimate to 30 million units from 28 million.

But that may still be too low, as “these revised estimates are still below where expected build plans are.”

Apple shares this morning are up $2.31, or 0.6%, at $391.40.

Previously:

AAPL: Ticonderoga, BTIG Heartened By AT&T iPhone Remarks, December 7th, 2011;

Apple: Sterne Agee Raises iPhone, Cuts iPad Estimate, December 7th, 2011.