9/27/2012

Intel: Needham Cuts To Hold On Inventory Questions

Several analysts with bullish takes on Intel (INTC) rushed to the company’s defense this morning after the chip maker announced Q4 revenue will probably fall a billion short of prior expectations.

But one downgrade has emerged this afternoon, from Needham & Co.’s Quinn Bolton, who cut his rating to Hold from Buy, writing that the shares are now fairly valued given some “near-term risks” raised by the shortfall.

Bolton asks whether inventory buildup over “the last several quarters” were responsible for boosting revenue growth at Intel, and if so, by how much.

He also wonders how long PC makers and the rest of the distribution chain will be cutting chip inventory.

While Bolton can’t answer those questions, he concludes “We believe these questions will be answered next year by the slope of Intel�s revenue recovery.”

Bolton cut his Q4 estimate to $13.7 billion and 59 cents EPS from a prior $14.6 billion and 69 cents. For 2012, he now sees $56 billion in revenue and $2.40 per share in profit, down from a prior $58 billion and $2.60 per share.

Intel shares continue to trade in about the same range they’ve marked all day, currently down $1.19, or 4.8%, at $23.82.

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