10/29/2012

Starbucks Strikes Fear in Green Mountain Investors

For months, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) investors knew that Starbucks (SBUX) was planning its own single-serve brewer. Shares had plunged on the initial news in March that Starbucks would make its own machine. Shares fell another 9.6% today.

StarbucksVerismo, Starbucks’s new single-cup espresso and coffee machine.

And yet, maybe GMCR fans hoped it would never actually come to fruition. Because when Starbucks’ Verismo machine was unveiled today, investors acted like they were surprised, or maybe they were just wowed by its latte-brewing skills. The new brewer will start arriving in stores next week.

Green Mountain controls about 90% of the single-cup market, the Wall Street Journal notes. But the competitive landscape appears to have shifted from when Starbucks announced a deal in March of 2011 to sell its coffee for distribution in GMCR’s Keurig brewers. Around that time, GMCR owned the buzz in the industry, and analysts were chattering about GMCR taking market share from Starbucks. The Starbucks–GMCR partnership looked like a way for Starbucks to catch up, an if-you-can’t-beat-them-join-them move.

That momentum appears to have shifted, and investors may have realized that more than ever today.

In a conference call today, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said “For the time being we’re committed to the partnership with Green Mountain.”

The operative phrase? “For the time being…”

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