Marvell a Strong Reversal Candidate for Longs and Shorts

It's an upside-down look at the world for both longs and shorts following Marvell Technology's (MRVL) Q4 results in tonight's after-hours. We've got a history where the stock consistently reverses its earnings-driven after-hours direction in next-day regular session action. In other words, if it's up tonight, shorts may want to keep an eye out for potential hard ceiling levels. A downside move in the shares this evening, and longs may have an opportunity to catch a bounce off any floor that develops.

MRVL has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 16 of the last 26 quarters tracked in our database. In 10 of those quarters, or 63% of the time, the stock has narrowed or reversed its gains the following day. In the 10 quarters where the stock posted an earnings-driven evening decline, it reversed direction six times the following day, or 60% of the time.

In the near-term, the stock continues to favor the reversal pattern, doing so in the last four consecutive quarters.

Here's the historical data:

On Nov. 18, 2010, MRVL fell 2.5% after the regular session. But shares jumped 6% by the close of the next day's regular session.

On Aug. 19, 2010, MRVL surged 10% in after-hours trading after posting in-line earnings results, announcing a stock buyback plan and guiding mostly above Street estimates for its Q3. The stock cut some of its gains the next day, closing the Aug. 20 regular session up 8.4%.

On May 20, 2010, the stock gained 2% after a Q1 beat. Shares eased 0.3% the next day.

On March 4, 2010, the stock fell 6% after mixed Q4 results and Q1 guidance that was largely above the Street's view. Shares rebounded to gain 1.3% the next day.

On Dec. 3, 2009, MRVL gained 5.5% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock jumped higher the following day, closing the Dec. 4 regular session up 9.2%.

On Aug. 27, 2009, MRVL jumped 7.6% in after-hours trading after topping Q2 expectations. The gain narrowed the following day as MRVL ended the Aug. 28 regular session up 4.9%.

On May 28, 2009, the stock fell 1.9% after meeting with earnings. Shares fell 2.2% the following day.

On March 5, 2009, MRVL advanced 9.1% in evening trading following better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock cut its gains modestly the next day, ending the March 6 regular session up 7.1%.

On Dec. 2, 2008, MRVL leaped 10.4% in after-hours trading after beating Street estimates. The stock roared higher the next day, rising 20.4% in the Dec. 3 regular session.

On Aug. 28, 2008, MRVL declined 3.4% in after-hours trading after beating Q2 expectations. The stock added to its downside in the following regular session, declining 4.4% by the closing bell on Aug. 29.

On May 29, 2008, the stock gained 14.9% after the company beat with Q1 results. The gain fattened to 23.3% the next day.

On March 6, 2008, MRVL declined 5.1% in evening trade after reporting a strong Q4 but setting guidance that disappointed Wall Street. The stock saw its downside slim back just a bit the following day, ending the March 7 regular session down 5.0%.

On Nov. 27, 2007, the stock dropped 9.9% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results but announced job cuts. The loss was a slightly deeper 10.1% the next day.

On Aug. 23, 2007, MRVL shed 8.1% in after-hours trading after the company met Q2 earnings expectations and beat on revenue. It added to its downside the next day, closing the Aug. 24 regular session down 11.7%.

On May 17, 2007, MRVL firmed 1.5% in night trading despite missing Q1 sales estimates. Shares, though, fell the next day to close the regular session down 2.8%.

On Feb. 26, 2007, MRVL advanced 5% in after-hours trading after the company reported a year-over-year improvement in Q4 sales but still missed Street estimates. It lost a chunk of that gain in the next day's regular session, gaining a more modest 3%.

On Nov. 16, 2006, shares fell 3.6% in the evening session. The company beat with revenue figures but offered no EPS results due to its ongoing options review. The loss was pared somewhat the next day when shares finished down 2.9%.

On Aug. 17, 2006, shares fell 8.5% in the evening hours after the stock missed Q2 revenue expectations. The stock fell 6.9% the next day.

On May 18, 2006, shares improved 6.2% after the company beat and guided for higher revenue in Q2. The gain swelled to 13.1% the next day.

On Feb. 23, 2006, shares advanced 4.7% in the evening session after topping with latest results and announcing stock split. The stock nosed down 0.8% the next day.

On Nov. 17, 2005, MRVL advanced 7.6% after saying Q3 revs of $426 million, vs. the FC mean of $421 million. Pro forma EPS was $0.36 per share, vs. the Street view of $0.33 per share. Shares jumped 12.9% the next day.

MRVL rose 2.2% on Aug. 18, 2005, after besting Q2 estimates. It narrowed its gain in the Aug. 19 regular session, edging up 0.5%.

On May 19, 2005 MRVL advanced 1.7% in after-hours trading after the company topped expectations and raised its revenue guidance above the then-current Street view. Buyers pushed more aggressive upside momentum into the stock on May 20, boosting it 3.8% between the bells.

On Feb. 24, 2005 MRVL gained 3.9% in after-hours trading after the company beat expectations and guided ahead of the Street view. It cut back its upside slightly the next day, ending the Feb. 25 regular session up 3.7%.

MRVL jumped 6.9% the night of Nov. 18, 2004 after the company beat earnings estimates and set its sales outlook about in line with estimates. The stock saw the bulk of its gains evaporate in the next-day trade, ending the Nov. 19 regular session up 1.6%.

After beating estimates and guiding higher on Aug. 19, 2004 MRVL slid 4.5% in night trade. It cut its declines the following day and ended the regular session up 10.4%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.